2020 nfl draft fantasy rankings

Analytics Top 300 Rankings (2020 NFL Draft)

Before we get to the rankings, I’ve decided to make the “10 Draft Commandments” after doing all of this research:

1) Understand that all of our prospect rankings suck. Even multi-million dollar GMs are bad.

2) Seriously. Everyone sucks at this. Draft Twitter, anonymous scouts, Belichick. All quite bad!

3) With that out of the way… Try to trade down, unless you’re drafting a quarterback.

4) Adjust for positional value. QB > other positions > RB.

5) Athleticism matters more on defense than it does on offense, especially at EDGE.

6) Younger players are typically better. Adjust college production by age.

7) College production matters more at some positions (QB, RB, WR, EDGE, LB).

8) Counting and market share stats are more important than efficiency stats.

9) TFLs and solo tackles are more predictive than sacks for DT, EDGE, and LB prospects.

10) Players on good college teams are usually better. Small school prospects aren’t discounted.

Analytics Top 300 Rankings (2020 NFL Draft)

If you’re curious about the step-by-step process of this project, I outlined it under the Top 300 Big Board on Page 4, but essentially I’m projecting NFL production using college stats, athleticism, and film. That means this is NOT an analytics-only big board. Instead, it’s a big board that combines film grades and analytics, adjusting for positional value of course. That’s why you’ll see QB Jordan Love ranked highly despite not being an analytics quarterback. If I was only using analytics, Love wouldn’t be a top-five quarterback prospect, but ignoring film (or analytics) is a bad process, as the kids say.

Page 4: Top 300 Big Board and Methodology


How to read this table: “Justin Herbert, an 82nd percentile quarterback prospect, is the QB4 and No. 5 overall player in the 2020 NFL Draft.”

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