The Bill Simmons Million Dollar NFL Picks – $1,000,000 Recap
The Million Dollar Picks happen every week on the Bill Simmons Podcast. We recap them for those who are too busy for a 2 hour pod.
If you’re not listening to this show on The Ringer, you should. Bill Simmons and Joe House discuss the games in a segment called “Million Dollar Picks”. During the segment Bill wagers one million dollars (imaginary?) on the slate of NFL Games.
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—Nats/Ewing Theory ruling + Million Dollar Picks for a tasty Week 5 w/ @HousefromDChttps://t.co/HUtEUdcoW7
The Teaser Basket
Bills mantra for the season; avoid bad teams and avoid bad teams against bad teams.
They begin with the Patriots visiting the Redskins.
“This will be a half full stadium of mass holes, and has the potential to be a massacre”
Matthew Berry, earlier on this show
Bill likes the idea of teasing the pats down to single digits. Joe agrees. The case against the pats is they are banged up and have a new kicker. But the defense can win this game and cover 10 points by themselves against Washington.
Who else will they put in the teaser?
Falcons +5 tease to +11? No thanks
Vikings at NYG? Nope
Chargers -6 vs Denver ? Don’t trust the Chargers and too many Denver fans at that game.
Chicago -5 vs Oakland in London? This one is interesting. Oakland got the Colts at their worst last week, and the Bears Defense is A LOT better than the Colts.
The Bears D can win this game and Chase Daniel might be an upgrade. Joe points out that this is the Khalil Mack revenge game and Raiders have an awful record after a win. Also, the guys point out Bears have a travel advantage vs the west coast Raiders going to London. Teams from the west coast are 1-5 in London’s
Underdogs Bill Simmons likes
Jaguars +3 vs Carolina – Jags are undervalued in general. And Minsh-anity is real ! Also road teams are winning this year (39-21-1 ATS).
Bill and Joe both love the Packers +3.5 at Dallas. Joe thought Dallas was better before last week in NOLA. Their wins look like garbage now against the Skins, Giants and Dolphins. The reality with the Packers is they blew it against Philly. They could be undefeated. Adams being our accounts for the spread. Bill thinks this is not a game to go big on.
The Colts +11 was calling Bill’s name because he loves Indy. But the Colts defense is statistically one of the worst and he doesn’t see a scenario where the Chiefs don’t put up 40. He thinks this could be a shootout. Maybe a little tease with the over ?
Tampa getting 3 points in New Orleans is enticing. Their defense was great last week getting pressure on Goff. Shaq Barrett is incredible. Godwin and Evans are great. Teddy B looked kind of limiting for the Saints. Bill reminds us that Tampa won at the Saints last year.
This is more betting against the Ravens for Bill. He doesn’t trust Baltimore’s D. They might not be good. So he likes the Steelers +3.5. But he is going to stay away from this game.
Week 5 Million Dollar Picks from the BIll Simmons Podcast
Million Dollar Pick #1 – Bears and Patriots 6 Point Teaser for $500,000
Million Dollar Pick #2 – Jags +3.5 Points for $300,000
Million Dollar Pick #3 – Tampa Bay +3 for $150,000
Million Dollar Pick #4 – Colts +11 Points and OVER 56 Parlay for $50,000 (+260 wins $130,000)
The Props Network also features exclusive picks from Tony Bruno
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