College football Week 7 picks against the spread for every top-25 matchup
Week 7 of the college football season features four games between ranked teams.
No. 6 Oklahoma and No. 11 Texas meet in the Red River Rivalry (noon, FOX), and No. 24 Texas A&M hosts No. 1 Alabama (3:30 p.m., CBS) in the afternoon slot. Primetime features a top-10 showdown between No. 5 LSU and No. 7 Florida (8 p.m., ESPN) and a Big Ten matchup between No. 10 Penn State and No. 17 Iowa (7:30 p.m., ABC). Those are some tough picks against the spread.
Here is a look at our record so far this season:
Straight up: 99-23, .811 (12-4 last week)
Against the spread: 68-54, .557 (8-8 last week)
Upset picks: 1-7, .125 (0-2 last week)
With that in mind, here is a look at the dates, times, TV and odds (provided courtesy of Sportsbook Review as of Monday, Sept. 23) for every top-25 matchup in Week 7:
Friday, Sept. Oct. 11
No. 20 Virginia at Miami (-1)
The line dropped a half-point from its open, and it’s rooted in the fact the Cavaliers haven’t won at Miami since 2011. Virginia, however, had the extra week to prepare after the Notre Dame loss and is the better team. It’s time for Bryce Perkins to prove why the Cavaliers are the Coastal Division favorite.
Virginia wins 31-27 in an UPSET.
Colorado at No. 13 Oregon (-20)
It’s a big spread knowing the Buffaloes average 34.6 points per game and allow 31.6 ppg. The Ducks are 1-2 against the spread when favored by more than 20 points this season, and it feels like Colorado can hang around with its offense.
Oregon wins 44-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Saturday, Oct. 12
South Carolina at No. 3 Georgia (-24.5)
The Bulldogs are heavy favorites against the Gamecocks, who lost to Alabama by 24 earlier this season. Georgia has won the last four meetings by an average of 21 points, and South Carolina hangs around long enough to lose by that margin again.
Georgia wins 40-19 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 6 Oklahoma (-10.5) vs. No. 11 Texas
It’s the Red River Rivalry, and that seems like a lot of points knowing the last five regular-season matchups have been decided by an average of five points per game. We picked Texas to make the College Football Playoff in the preseason, but the injuries in the secondary will be too much for the Longhorns to overcome.
Oklahoma wins 41-34 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 16 Michigan (-20.5) at Illinois
Michigan’s offensive struggles have been noted, but Illinois has allowed 38.7 points per game the last three weeks to Eastern Michigan, Nebraska and Minnesota. The Wolverines find some rhythm before the trip to Happy Valley.
Michigan wins 41-17 and COVERS the spread.
No. 23 Memphis (-3.5) at Temple
Memphis is in the top 25 just in time for a road trip to Temple, where the Owls have been good enough to beat Maryland and Georgia Tech. Kenny Gainwell, who averages 8.2 yards per carry, allows the Tigers to settle in on the road in a fun game.
Memphis wins 27-20 and COVERS the spread.
No. 1 Alabama (-17) at No. 24 Texas A&M
Both teams had a bye week to prepare for an all-in game for the Aggies, and the line has ticked down a point from where it opened. Texas A&M will pull out all the stops, but it won’t be enough against Alabama in a game that mirrors last year.
Alabama wins 42-20 and COVERS the spread.
Florida State at No. 2 Clemson (-25.5)
The Tigers are heavy favorites, but 52 percent of the betting is coming in favor of the Seminoles at this point. The Tigers are 3-2 ATS this season, and they might come out looking to make a statement after a long bye week. Florida State hangs around just long enough to cover.
Clemson wins 37-13 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Michigan State at No. 8 Wisconsin (-10)
Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor has 745 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns, and he’ll be up against a run defense that was torched by Ohio State last week. If the Badgers want to be considered in the Buckeyes’ weight class, then they need to show they can do that, too. It won’t be that easy.
Wisconsin wins 30-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Washington State at No. 18 Arizona State (-3)
The Cougars have won the last two meetings, and both teams had the extra bye week to prepare for this matchup. Mike Leach called out his players after a 38-13 loss at Utah, and they get the message in a Pac-12 thriller.
Washington State wins 34-31 in an UPSET.
Texas Tech at No. 22 Baylor (-10.5)
Baylor continues to roll along with Matt Rhule, and that’s come on the strength of a defense that allows 15.4 points per game. Texas Tech is coming off an impressive upset against Oklahoma State, but they can’t duplicate that on the road in Waco.
Baylor wins 27-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 25 Cincinnati (-6.5) at Houston
The Bearcats are ranked after knocking off UCF at home, but Houston can turn this into a shootout with an offense that averages 33.8 points per game. Cougars quarterback Clayton Tune keeps this one interesting down to the end.
Cincinnati wins 33-30 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
USC at No. 9 Notre Dame (-11.5)
The Irish have a chance to put USC on the mat for the season, and the key will be Ian Book getting the Irish off to a fast start against a USC team that has shuffled through three different quarterbacks this season. Notre Dame must pour it on a little bit to stay in the Playoff conversation, and they will.
Notre Dame wins 42-20 and COVERS the spread.
No. 10 Penn State (-4) at No. 17 Iowa
The Nittany Lions needed a last-second touchdown pass to win at Iowa in the teams’ last meeting at Kinnick Stadium, and the Hawkeyes will be in desperation mode after a 10-3 loss at Michigan. We still think Penn State is simply the better team, and Sean Clifford will prove it.
Penn State wins 27-19 and COVERS the spread.
Louisville at No. 19 Wake Forest (-6.5)
Both offenses average more than 30 points per game, and if Malik Cunningham can be efficient in the passing game, then an upset is possible. The Demon Deacons have been great around Jamie Newman, too, and that adds up to a fun game with a surprise finish.
Louisville wins 37-34 in an UPSET.
No. 7 Florida at No. 5 LSU (-13)
The Gators are in their second top-10 showdown in as many weeks, and they are tasked with slowing down an LSU offense that leads the nation with 54.6 points per game. Florida and LSU matchups typically heat up in the fourth quarter, and this will be no exception.
LSU wins 31-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 15 Utah (-13) at Oregon State
Utah is looking to climb back into the Pac-12 championship picture, and they will face an improved Oregon State team on the road. The Beavers played Stanford and Hawaii tight, but the Utes’ defense is the difference here.
Utah wins 30-14 and COVERS the spread.
Hawaii at No. 14 Boise State (-11.5)
The last six meetings between these teams have not been close, and Boise State has won all of them by 20 points or more. The Warriors have taken steps in the right direction, but this serves as another reality check.
Boise State wins 35-21 and COVERS the spread.