Microsoft’s Cortana is on fire picking NFL games — here are its picks for Week 10
- After a slow start to the season, Cortana has caught fire in recent weeks.
- The two models we’re tracking have correctly picked 63% of the games this season.
- Cortana has nailed 83% of the games in the last 3 weeks.
The NFL season is now in Week 10, and one of the two computer models we are tracking has caught fire in recent weeks.
We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft’s digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.
In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team’s winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.
Both models had been doing well in recent weeks, but Cortana is the one that is still on fire. Cortana went 10-3 in Week 9 and is now 34-7 (83%) over the last three weeks. It is now 85-47 (64%) overall, five games better than Elo (80-52, 61%). Elo went just 5-8 in Week 9 as Cortana correctly picked all five games the two computers disagreed on.
Here are the picks for Week 10, with each model’s percent chance of winning in parentheses. Games in bold are where the two models disagree on who has the best chance to win. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.