Cricket: What the odds say about the Black Caps’ chances at 2019 Cricket World Cup
Can the Black Caps pull off another captivating run at the Cricket World Cup, or are they lacking in some key areas? Here’s what the bookmakers make of their chances of Cup success.
Only once this century have the Black Caps missed the semifinals of the Cricket World Cup, but the bookmakers are skeptical that a fourth straight final four appearance is on the cards for the Black Caps.
The Black Caps have been rated a $2.20 chance to make the semifinals, and $4.50 to repeat their 2015 final appearance. Their chances of winning – 10-1 – is tied with South Africa as the fourth most-likely side to raise the Cup, and that seems similar to the general consensus about the Black Caps’ chances – that they will be right on the cusp of the semifinals.
When it comes to picking their most likely stage of elimination, the Black Caps sit at $1.66 to be eliminated in the group stage. They are at $10 to finish the group stage as top seeds, the same odds as South Africa, but – perhaps in an indication of their greater downside – are at $34 to finish bottom of the group stage, compared to South Africa’s $51.
The Black Caps’ best and worst case scenarios are both seen as unlikely, but one far more so than the other, with the squad at $12 to go winless, but $151 to go undefeated.
As for their chances of starting with a win? Pretty good actually – they are at $1.30 to beat Sri Lanka on Saturday.
At $11, the Black Caps are ranked sixth to be the team which will produce the highest innings score. The bookmakers have a lack of faith in New Zealand’s opening partnership too, placing them at $11 outsiders to have the highest opening stand of the tournament, and at $9 for the highest first 10 overs.
With big scores being predicted at the World Cup, the ability to clear the rope will also be important, and the bookies don’t rate New Zealand highly in that regard, coming in at $13 to hit the most sixes.
Additionally, in one of the books with the worst value of all time, Martin Guptill has been inserted at $17 to score the fastest century of the tournament, with Jos Buttler leading the way at $5.50.
When you consider that New Zealand only hit two centuries last World Cup – both from Guptill – and two in 2011 as well, betting on not only a player – any player! – to score a century, but for it to also have to be the fastest of the tournament…. well it’s not recommended by the Herald‘s unofficial gambling correspondent.