Week 14 DraftKings Picks: Best lineup stacks for NFL DFS tournaments, cash games
Week 14 is the largest main DFS slate that we have seen in a while with 13 games. I love these types of slates for cash games, as we can expect a lot of NFL DFS players to make suboptimal plays with the extra volume of players in the player pool. This is also a week where you can get funky with your DraftKings GPP lineup stacks, with it likely to take a massive score to take down a tournament. What makes this week even more intriguing is that there isn’t any obvious game stacking spots, and not a single game has a total of 50 points or higher.
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Week 14 NFL DFS Picks: Top DraftKings stacks for cash games
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and WR DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins @ Jets
Through the first few weeks of the season, I didn’t think I would at any point consider playing a Dolphins stack in cash games. However, this team has shown some real grit in what is clearly a multi-year rebuild phase, and you have to give them a lot of credit. Fitzpatrick has been balling over the last month and is coming off of his best game of the season against the Eagles. His price has risen across the industry, but you have to feel good about his prospects this week against a bad Jets secondary. Miami is down to their third- and fourth-string running backs, so expect Fitzpatrick to push for around 40 passing attempts – he has averaged 41 attempts per game over the last three weeks.
The clear top stacking option with Fitzpatrick is Parker. Parker has been one of the best wideouts in the league over the last month, and his target volume is what we are looking for out of a player at his price point. He has seen 10 or more targets in each of his last four games and has averaged 113.5 yards per game in those contests. It feels weird paying this much salary for a player who had been labeled a first-round draft bust up until this point of his career, but it’s hard to overlook him in a great matchup with the Jets on a week where many of the high-end wide receivers are in tough matchups.
QB Kyle Allen and RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers @ Falcons
With there being 13 games on this slate, I’m prioritizing raw points in cash games and banking on other players making sub-optimal plays with more players in the player pool. Because of this, I’m prioritizing McCaffrey in cash games, and I think there is more than enough value to make his high salary work. CMC is coming off of a “bad” week by his standards against the Redskins but is in an ideal bounce-back spot this week against the Falcons. McCaffrey can reach his salary expectations on volume alone – something he did against the Falcons back in Week 11, when he posted 191 yards from scrimmage and 11 receptions.
You can obviously play McCaffrey by himself, but I don’t mind the idea of paying down at quarterback and stacking him with Allen. While Allen has certainly had his ups and downs this season, his price is right on DraftKings at $5,700. The Panthers have certainly let Allen throw early and often with him attempting 43 or more passing attempts in three of his last four games. The ceiling on Allen is probably capped around 25 FPTS, but I feel better about rostering Allen in cash games over some other value quarterbacks such as David Blough, Derek Carr, and Gardner Minshew.
Week 14 DraftKings Picks: Best stacks for daily fantasy football GPPs/tournaments
QB Ryan Tannehill and WR A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans
There haven’t been many quarterbacks in the league who have been better than Tannehill since he took over for Marcus Mariota earlier this season. Tennessee is always going to be a team that looks to establish the run through Derrick Henry. Still, Tannehill has been extremely efficient with his limited passing attempts, and he has shown enough rushing ability to give him a stable floor at his price point. This week, Tannehill checks in at only $7,300 on FanDuel and $5,700 on DraftKings in a prime matchup against a Raiders defense that has looked horrible over the last few weeks and has given up the fourth-most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing quarterbacks. With many of the high-end quarterback options in tough matchups, I have no problem spending down on Tannehill in tournaments.
While I don’t mind playing Tannehill by himself, for large-field tournaments, I want to correlate him with Brown, who has shown himself to be the Titans’ most reliable pass-catcher. Brown is a much better value on FanDuel at $5,400 than he is on DraftKings at $5,300, but he shouldn’t be highly owned on either site. The floor is low for Brown, who has averaged five targets per game over his last four games, but his physicality and large catch radius make him a mismatch for an Oakland defense that ranks in the bottom-10 DvP against opposing wide receivers this season.
QB Philip Rivers, RB Austin Ekeler, and WR Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers @ Jaguars
This feels like a week where it’s going to take an outside of the box stack to take down a large field GPP with 13 games on the slate. Many of the top offenses that we would normally target are in tough matchups, so going down to some of these second-tier units makes a lot of sense. The Chargers are a team that I’m taking a long look at as they head to Jacksonville to take on the struggling Jaguars defense. The total in this game is only 43, but I like the over on that number considering how poor these defenses have been playing in the second half of the season.
Rivers has struggled this year, and there are rumblings that he is on the verge of being benched. With that in mind, he has played a very difficult schedule for quarterbacks, and this is the best matchup he has seen since Week 4 against the Dolphins, where he tossed for 310 yards and two touchdowns.
I like RB Melvin Gordon this week, but for a stack with Rivers I’m going to side with Ekeler, who is much more involved in the passing game. I was hoping Ekeler would come into this week cheaper than his $6,300 price tag, but that should hold down his ownership in GPPs. The touch floor for Ekeler is far from secure, but he has shown excellent efficiency with his touches since Gordon returned to lineup from his holdout.
The final piece of this stack is going to be Williams. It’s been a tough year for Williams, who doesn’t have a single touchdown after being a red-zone monster in 2018. Similar to Alvin Kamara, I would be shocked if Williams doesn’t at least have some positive touchdown regression before the end of the season. Williams is being utilized as the main downfield threat for the Chargers this season, and his air yards per target is among the highest in the NFL. You can certainly go with Keenan Allen is this spot, but I’m going to take the point-per-dollar upside of Williams to save some salary for the rest of the lineup.
It should be noted that this stack is relying on the Chargers playing from behind and passing the ball often, so running this stack back with a Jaguar like Leonard Fournette or DJ Chark makes a lot of sense from a game theory perspective.
There’s plenty of strategy that goes into putting together a winning DFS lineup, and the best place to start is RotoQL’s DFS tools. RotoQL’s Lineup Optimizer is a massive advantage when you’re building lineups, regardless of contest size or site.