Lucky 15 Strategies For Football
There are a few different strategies for placing your Lucky 15 bet on the football, and these depend on your approach to betting in general.
- Do you like low odds and high certainty?
- Or high odds and low certainty?
- Or perhaps a mix of the two?
Let’s take a look at a few examples to decide which way you should go:
Low Odds, High Certainty Type Bet
So, here are our selections for our sample Lucky 15….
These four teams are all hot favourites to win their matches, and this is clearly reflected in their odds. Hence, this is the perfect example of a ‘low odds, high certainty’ bet.
We’ve entered these selections into our coupon, and decided to place a £1 stake on a Lucky 15. The outcome is this:
- Outlay = £15, Potential Return = £65
And so we could yield a clear profit of a tidy £50. Nice.
Now, we need to point out here that a winning £15 four-fold on these teams would return £165. But remember: all four of your selections coming is an infrequent occurrence; regardless of how certain you may be feeling.
With a Lucky 15 bet, we’re looking for consistent, weekly income – not a one-off windfall.
In the example above, let’s imagine that both Liverpool and Crystal Palace win, but the two Manchester teams let us down. We can calculate our return thus:
- Two Singles – Liverpool (£2.00) and Crystal Palace (£2.05)
- One Double – Liverpool & Crystal Palace (£4.10)
And so our Lucky 15 has returned a grand total of £8.15.
There’s mildly good news and some bad news: the mildly good news is that we have a return on our initial investment that we can put towards our next bet – something that is not available in other forms of accumulator.
The bad news is that we have made a loss of £6.85. And so in a ‘low odds, high certainty’ style Lucky 15, we really need at least three of our selections to come in.
Let’s try the bet again, but this time we’ll imagine that Manchester City win along with Liverpool and Crystal Palace. The returns calculation is now:
- Three Singles – Liverpool (£2.00), Crystal Palace (£2.05) & Man City (£1.25)
- Three Doubles – Liverpool & Crystal Palace (£4.10); Liverpool & Man City (£2.50); Crystal Palace & Man City (£2.56)
- One Treble – Liverpool, Crystal Palace & Man City (£5.13)
Now our Lucky 15 has returned a grand total of £19.59 – which is a profit of £4.59.
So by having just one more winner – even one as stingily priced as Man City are in this example – we can turn our frowns upside down. Hopefully this has convinced you that even low-priced winners can add value to your Lucky 15.
High Odds, Low Certainty Type Bet
From a mathematical perspective, if we backed four 15/1 shots on our Lucky 15 then we’d only need one winner to make a small profit. With two winners we’d double our money. That, in itself, is very tempting.
Finding winners at such a long price is a skill in itself however, and if you are good at finding them then you should probably be sticking to singles betting anyway!
Backing a 15/1 winner on the horses is tricky (but doable), but finding four 15/1 winners on the football in outright match betting markets is nigh on impossible.
There are other permutations that you could consider though: Half Time/Full Time betting is becoming increasingly popular, and add value to what would otherwise be low odds outcomes.
For example, in the Southampton vs Tottenham game, a ‘Southampton/Draw’ scorecast was priced at 17/1.
Finding four of these is a huge ask, but hunting down one or two a week is not completely implausible. And so we’ll have to file a ‘high odds, low certainty’ Lucky 15 bet very much in the longshot category.
A Mix Of Both Strategies
There is plenty of thought amongst betting enthusiasts that the most rewarding way of utilising the Lucky 15 bet is to mix and match your odds, with three bankers and one longshot being the ultimate combination.
Let’s take a look at an example:
We’re going to back Liverpool at Evens, Crystal Palace at 23/20, Man City at 1/4 and that Southampton/Draw scorecast at 17/1, in a £1 Lucky 15.
Now let’s imagine that Liverpool and the scorecast come in. This returns:
- Two Singles – Liverpool (£2.00) & Southampton (£18)
- One Double – Liverpool & Southampton (£36)
Suddenly, we’ve turned over a profit of £41 with just two winners!
The Best Lucky 15 Strategy For Football
Ultimately, your personal Lucky 15 strategy will be based on your own betting philosophy. Are you a high stakes punter or risk averse?
In truth, there is no right or wrong strategy. The ‘low risk’ philosophy should see you win consistent profit – or at least get some kind of return – on a weekly basis.
A ‘high risk’ strategy, meanwhile, may only come in a couple of times a season – but that could be enough to yield a profit.
We would probably always steer towards a blend of the two, but this is your money at the end of the day so you need to make that judgement call.
Other Good Reads:
Author: Dave Jackson
Dave is an absolute resourse of information when it comes to tennis and football betting. He’s currently writing his first book ‘Smash & Grab – Punters Guide To Accumulator Betting’ which is out later this year.
5-Fold Acca Insurance
Get a refund of up to £50 if one leg of your 5-fold or bigger accumulator lets you down. T&C’s apply.
3x Odds For One Lucky 15 Winner
Place a Lucky 15 bet and if only one of your four selections wins you can get a 3x the odds payout on that selection. T&C’s apply.