College football Week 6 picks against the spread for every top-25 matchup
The first week of October is here, and Week 6 of the college football schedule features three matchups between ranked teams.
No. 14 Iowa travels to No. 19 Michigan (noon, FOX) in a Big Ten showdown. The Wolverines will look to make up for losing to Wisconsin two weeks ago. That sets the stage for a top-10 matchup between No. 7 Auburn and No. 10 Florida (3:30 p.m., CBS). No. 25 Michigan State faces No. 4 Ohio State (7:30 p.m., ABC) in primetime.
Here’s a look at our record so far this season:
Straight up: 87-19, .821 (15-3 last week)
Against the spread: 60-46, .566 (10-8 last week)
Upset picks: 1-7, .125 (0-2 last week)
With that in mind, here’s a look at the dates, times, TV and odds (provided courtesy of Sportsbook Review as of 4 p.m. ET Monday, Sept. 30) for every top-25 matchup in Week 6:
Friday, Sept. Oct. 4
No. 18 UCF (-4.5) at Cincinnati
The Knights travel for an AAC showdown. UCF played three quarterbacks last week, but Dillon Gabriel’s efficiency will be the X-factor against a Cincinnati defense that has allowed 14 points or fewer in games not involving Ohio State. UCF will be fine if it protects the football.
UCF wins 31-24 and COVERS the spread.
Saturday, Oct. 5
Utah State at No. 5 LSU (-26)
Jordan Love is one of the more talented quarterbacks LSU will face this season, but the Tigers had a bye week to prepare and Joe Burrow should have his way against a secondary that has just two interceptions this season. LSU tunes up for Florida in style. The Tigers have covered spreads of 24.5 and 27 this season.
LSU wins 49-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 6 Oklahoma (-35.5) at Kansas
The Sooners’ offense continues to roll around Jalen Hurts, and the Sooners have won the last two meetings at Kansas by an average of 46.5 points. The Jayhawks are coming off a 37-point loss to TCU, too. We’re counting a small look ahead for Oklahoma with the Red River Rivalry coming.
Oklahoma wins 52-19 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 14 Iowa at No. 19 Michigan (-4)
Michigan gets another ranked opponent, and Iowa will not be afraid at The Big House. The Hawkeyes have won the last two meetings when both teams are ranked, and that included a 34-9 blowout at Michigan Stadium in 2002.
Michigan wins 27-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 21 Oklahoma State (-10) at Texas Tech
Chuba Hubbard (938 yards, 10 touchdowns) deserves some Heisman love, and maybe some more will come with a big outing against the Red Raiders, who allow 179.8 yards per game on the ground. The Cowboys have won the last five in Lubbock.
Oklahoma State wins 49-38 and COVERS the spread.
Kent State at No. 8 Wisconsin (-37)
The Flashes lost to Auburn by 39 earlier this season, and the Badgers have covered a 30-point spread this season. The defense has allowed 15 points or fewer and has two shutouts, too.
Wisconsin wins 49-10 and COVERS the spread.
Purdue at No. 12 Penn State (-28)
Injuries to Elijah Sindelar and Rondale Moore are big trouble for the Boilermakers heading into Happy Valley. Penn State is coming off a 59-0 victory at Maryland and is 3-1 against the spread. Purdue has lost just two games by more than 21 points under Jeff Brohm. We’re going to trust that.
Penn State wins 42-21 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 11 Texas (-11) at West Virginia
The Mountaineers and Longhorns have played some ridiculous Big 12 games this decade, but Texas has won two of the three meetings in Morgantown. The extra week of preparation will help, but don’t be surprised if West Virginia hangs around into the fourth quarter.
Texas wins 34-31 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 7 Auburn (-3) at No. 10 Florida
A shame these teams haven’t met since 2011. It’s the top-10 SEC showdown of the week, and the defenses should make this a low-scoring affair. Auburn is improving each week with freshman quarterback Bo Nix, and the hype will start to get real after this one.
Auburn wins 28-17 and COVERS the spread.
Bowling Green at No. 9 Notre Dame (-45)
It’s OK to stay away from this spread. The Irish will dominate this game early. It’s just a matter of when they pull up against an inferior MAC foe that allows 449 yards per game. That’s just too many points.
Notre Dame wins 52-10 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 3 Georgia (-25.5) at Tennessee
Georgia won 41-0 on its last visit to Neyland Stadium, and that was enough to end the Butch Jones era. That can’t be lost on the Vols heading into this game, especially after a 34-3 loss at Florida. There needs to be progress. Georgia is coming off a bye week and might not be a little salty.
Georgia wins 44-17 and COVERS the spread.
No. 25 Michigan State at No. 4 Ohio State (-20)
The Spartans face the unenviable task of taking on a hot Ohio State team that smashed Nebraska on the road. Michigan State is the last Big Ten team to win at The Shoe, with a 17-14 victory in 2015. Ohio State also won the last home meeting 48-3 in 2017. Expect something in between Saturday.
Ohio State wins 38-14 and COVERS the spread.
Tulsa at No. 24 SMU (-12.5)
SMU is ranked, and with that comes challenges. Tulsa won a 27-24 thriller between the teams last year, and this one should follow the same path. Shane Buechele makes the difference with a touchdown drive late.
SMU wins 34-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Cal at No. 13 Oregon (-18)
Oregon had a bye to prepare for Cal, which fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last week. The Ducks have won the last five meetings between the teams at Autzen Stadium by an average of 28.6 points per game. Cal will allow more than 24 points for the first time, but bettors should be wary of the backdoor cover.
Oregon wins 34-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 16 Boise State (-24) at UNLV
Boise State should be able to pound the running game with Robert Mahone and George Holani. The Broncos are 3-1 against the spread this season, and UNLV is 1-2 ATS as an underdog. It could be close on the cover, but we will go with Boise State.
Boise State wins 45-17 and COVERS the spread.
No. 15 Washington (-14.5) at Stanford
The Huskies have won by an average of 24 points per game the last three games since falling to Cal, but this one is one the road and could be a little closer. Stanford seems to be out from the low point of their season.
Washington wins 28-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.