Nfl expert picks against spread week 11

NFL Week 11 Expert Picks, Best Bets Against the Spread

Which NFL underdogs are most enticing in Week 11? Just three games have a spread of over a touchdown, so expect plenty of close games. Below are our experts picking the games against the spread this season, along with each of their picks against the spread and best bets for this weekend’s slate.

Season Standings
Gramling 65-64-4
Meyer: 63-66-4
Traina: 62-67-4

BEST BETS

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5)

I’m going to break my self-imposed rule of not betting games that involve the erratic Jameis Winston for two reasons. The Bucs always play the Saints tough at home—they’ve covered in four of their last six home games against New Orleans. And injuries are shaping up to play a huge role in this one. The Saints will be without struggling left guard Andrus Peat, who will be replaced by downgrade Will Clapp, who got it handed to him last week against Atlanta. And if New Orleans is indeed without Marshon Lattimore, there’s a domino effect with the defense, because Lattimore can so often shut down opposing No. 1s with little safety help. If Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have plus matchups, that’s a huge edge for Tampa Bay, who should be able to hang around and maybe even pull off the upset.—Gary Gramling

New England Patriots (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

I wish this line was 3, but I’ll always ride with Bill Belichick 1) off a Patriots bye week and 2) after a game in which the Patriots got blown out. New England is 14-5 after a bye week under Belichick. The best coach in the history of the NFL also had two weeks to remind his team that it was embarrassed by the Ravens on national television. The inconsistent Eagles are a great matchup for a Patriots bounce back. Philly has won two in a row, but those wins have come against two of the most inept quarterbacks in the NFL: Josh Allen and Mitch Trubisky. Something tells me Tom Brady will provide a much tougher test.—Jimmy Traina

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5)

Just six weeks ago, the Bucs were a three-point road dog in New Orleans, and lost 31-24. That was Teddy Bridgewater’s third start of the season, but are we sure Drew Brees is a big enough upgrade to warrant the line jumping this much? I don’t think so, as Brees hasn’t been throwing the ball downfield and now he’s playing outside in Tampa. The Saints’ offensive line struggled massively in a shocking home loss to the Falcons this past weekend, and now have to go up against Ndamukong Suh and Shaq Barrett. And the Bucs have not only been elite at defending the run this season, they’ve done a nice job containing tailbacks in the passing game as well. So don’t expect Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray to have too much of an impact in this one.

On the other side of the ball, if star cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) doesn’t play, the Saints could be in massive trouble. Lattimore completely shut down Mike Evans in the first matchup of the season between these two teams, as Evans didn’t record a single catch the entire game. Evans and Chris Godwin are the NFL’s best receiving tandem this season, and not having Lattimore to help cover one of them would make things a lot easier for Jameis Winston.

With all of these factors and the fact that I think the Bucs aren’t as bad as their record, this is a home underdog worth investing in. —Max Meyer

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