NFL picks Week 11: Latest odds, predictions against the spread for every game
The NFL playoff push will intensify Sunday with several games on the Week 11 schedule that should have a huge impact on the postseason races in both conferences.
One matchup stands out above the rest, and that is the New England Patriots visiting the Philadelphia Eagles for a Super Bowl LII rematch. The Patriots are trying to hold on to the AFC’s No. 1 seed, while the Eagles are desperate for a win to remain in the NFC East title race.
Here are our picks against-the spread for all of Sunday’s Week 11 games (picks are italicized, and odds are from the WestGate SuperBook in Las Vegas).
1 p.m. ET
Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) at Detroit Lions
This is a potential trap game for the Cowboys with a Week 12 matchup versus the Patriots losing, but it’s hard to see the Lions keeping this game competitive. Detroit has lost four of its last five games, and starting quarterback Matthew Stafford has been banged up of late. Dallas is the sixth-highest scoring team in the league and should be able to put this game away early.
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The chances of the Saints playing as bad as they did in Week 10 again aren’t very high. It’s also important to note the Saints are 6-3 against the spread (3-1 ATS on the road), while the Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS at home and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games versus New Orleans. Those trends make it hard to back the Bucs here.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-4.5)
The Falcons will keep this game close and cover because they will run all over the Panthers and dominate time of possession. Carolina’s run defense has allowed the fourth-most yards per game and a league-high 17 rushing touchdowns overall (five more than any other team).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Nick Foles’ return improves the Jaguars offense, while the Colts have to deal with starting QB Jacoby Brissett returning from a knee injury after missing week’s game. Brissett’s top wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton, will not play due to injury. Jacksonville is 3-1 ATS on the road this season, and we like that number improving Sunday.
Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings (-10)
The Vikings are undefeated (4-0) at home and their stout defense (allowing just 18.3 points per game) shouldn’t have too much trouble against a Broncos offense led by quarterback Brandon Allen. Denver also has scored the fifth-fewest points per game. Six of the Vikings’ seven wins have come by double-digits, and we expect another one Sunday.
New York Jets at Washington Redskins (-2.5)
Why would anyone in their right mind bet on Sam Darnold and the Jets, especially on the road? You might as well light your money on fire. New York also has been hit hard by injuries — linebacker C.J. Mosley has been ruled out and star running back Le’Veon Bell is questionable.
Buffalo Bills (-7) at Miami Dolphins
The Bills have the worst strength of schedule of all teams currently in a playoff spot, and their best result was a 16-10 home loss to the Patriots in Week 4. The Bills have zero quality wins, and they’ve actually lost two of their last three games. Miami has won back-to-back games, including a 16-12 victory over the Colts in Week 10. The Dolphins might not win, but the chances of them keeping the score close and covering are pretty good.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4)
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens pass offense should enjoy plenty of success against a Texans defense that allows the fourth-most passing yards per game. Baltimore will win this game on third down: the Ravens are the second-best team converting on third down, while the Texans are the sixth-worst team defending on third down.
4:05 p.m. ET
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-10)
The Cardinals have a 3-5-1 record, but they have played quite competitively in several of their losses (three of the six came by six or fewer points), including a 28-25 defeat to these 49ers two weeks ago. The 49ers probably win this game, but Kyler Murray’s offense should be able to keep this game from being a blowout.
4:25 p.m. ET
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Both teams are coming off a bye, and it’s hard to bet against Patriots head coach Bill Belichick when he has two weeks to prepare for a single opponent. The Eagles offense has been hit hard by injuries, and they won’t have their top two wide receivers (Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson) Sunday. New England’s defense still ranks No. 1 in yards and points allowed per game, and we expect that unit to give another strong performance this weekend.
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Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (-11.5)
The Raiders are at home (where they’re 4-0), they’ve had three extra days to rest and prepare, and the Bengals are 0-9 coming off a 43-10 Week 10 loss to the Ravens. This is a large line, but Oakland should cruise to a comfortable double-digit win.
8:20 p.m. ET
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
The Bears’ offense has struggled all season and ranks 27th in points scored per game, and we don’t see Chicago quarterback Mitch Trubisky haven’t much success versus a Rams defense giving up 13.3 points over the last three games. A late touchdown gives the Rams the cover.
Tom E. Curran’s Patriots vs. Eagles preview>>>
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