Expert Week 10 NFL Survivor Pool Advice, Tips, Picks for Knockout Football Pools
Last week saw a chunk of NFL survivor pool entries knocked out by the Packers’ and Jets’ losses, but one of those teams is back among this week’s top picks. As teams get used up and the games become tougher to pick, data-driven advice becomes more important. Fortunately, the experts from TeamRankings are here to help by breaking down the five most popular knockout picks for your Week 10 football pools.
Before getting into the pros and cons of those teams, here’s a reminder that TeamRankings the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in survivor pools. Since 2017, TeamRankings subscribers have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings. Check out their NFL survivor pool picks, football pick ’em contest picks, and NFL betting picks.
Last week’s survivor pick analysis
The three most popular choices from Week 9 survived, though it was dicey. San Francisco got a closer game from Arizona than expected, winning by three points. Seattle went to overtime at home against Tampa Bay and won the toss and drove for a winning score. Green Bay and the Jets, the next most popular entries, were not as fortunate. With their losses, plus some other smaller ones, the public survived at an estimated 86-percent rate for the week.
Our subscriber recommendations largely avoided the popular 49ers and Seahawks, and were heaviest on Buffalo against Washington, with 36 percent on the Bills. After that, three other teams were each recommended to about 16-17 percent of our subscribers: Carolina, Cleveland, and Dallas. Carolina and Dallas got the win, but Cleveland managed to lose a game against a quarterback who had never started, despite having more yards and fewer turnovers. As a result of that, and a few other recommendations, our subscriber recommendations advanced 78-percent of the time.
Overall, the public has survived at approximately a 16-percent rate to Week 10, and our recommendations at a 17-percent rate. Our subscribers also have a higher percentage of 49ers, Vikings, Bills, and Chiefs still available for future use compared to the public, which could be important in coming weeks.
Week 10 NFL Survivor Pool Pick Tips, Analysis
This week features two teams being selected by around 40 percent of the remaining public entries so far. They each look like the safest choices this week, but should you stay with one of them or take a little more risk and fade both to play for the big upset? Those are the choices those in survivor pools this week.
New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 45%
Point Spread: -13
Drew Brees is back, and the Saints have an attractive matchup against rival Atlanta, who are 1-7, allow 30th in points allowed per game, and have a league-low seven sacks. New Orleans has also been little used in survivor until now. In fact, their highest popularity figure until this week was five percent of the public entries taking them in Week 8. That means most entries have them available, and a large percentage are using them as the highest win odds team of the week. Our models put them at 83-percent win odds.
That high popularity figure takes away some of their value in a week with two other options with greater than 80-percent implied win odds based on the betting market money lines.
This week does look like the best option to use New Orleans based on projected win odds, and the only remaining week where we currently project them as a top three option by win odds. They do, though, have three other weeks where we project their win odds at 70 percent or better and could be a good future lower popularity play.
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Miami)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 40%
Point Spread: -10.5
The Colts have not been a popular choice until now in survivor pools and likely will not be again for the rest of the year. So, if you want to use them, this is the spot to do it. The win odds are currently at 81 percent from the betting markets, and our odds are a little lower at 78 percent. Jacoby Brissett’s status is still uncertain, and that could be holding down some of their value and is something to monitor. Veteran Brian Hoyer would get the start if Brissett cannot start.
Regardless, they are one of the safest choices this week. As with the Saints, their value is somewhat held down this week because their popularity is pushing 40 percent.
Baltimore Ravens (at Cincinnati)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 6%
Point Spread: -10
Unlike the two most popular options, the Ravens have already been a very popular survivor choice in multiple weeks. That’s why their pick popularity is down at six percent, a small fraction of both the Saints and Colts, despite having similar win odds playing against winless Cincinnati on the road. That means they look like the best value of the most popular options, but there is also a high likelihood that they are not available to choose.
Baltimore also has the best future value of any of the most popular choices this week, and in particular, look like an attractive choice in Week 15 when they host the Jets.
Green Bay Packers (vs. Carolina)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 2%
Point Spread: -5.5
Green Bay sneaks into this list at only two-percent popularity, with over 90 percent of the public going with the top three choices. They are a tier below the top choices in terms of safety, and our models give them a 69-percent chance of victory against Carolina.
That heightened risk is countered by the lower popularity and the payoff potential for an upset of one of the top two choices. While either the Saints or Colts losing is not super likely, there is roughly a one-in-three chance that at least one of them falls, wiping out at least 40 percent of remaining entries.
If you do not use Green Bay in this spot, they are an attractive option in Week 14 when they host Washington.
Kansas City Chiefs (at Tennessee)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 2%
Point Spread: -5.5
This section has been updated on Wednesday at 5 p.m. ET
The game was off the board on Tuesday while we awaited official news on Patrick Mahomes’ status. On Wednesday, the line opened at Chiefs by four and quickly moved up to 5.5 points. That line seems to reflect a belief that Mahomes is likely to play, as our full season predictive ratings would have the Chiefs at 6.1 points better than Tennessee on a neutral field (this game is in Tennessee).
The Chiefs have pretty good future value, and if you have not burned them yet, they look like a safer option in both Week 13 (vs. Oakland) and Week 15 (vs. Denver), at which point it is expected that Patrick Mahomes will certainly have fully healed.
They are currently in the same safety profile range as several other options this week, in the tier behind the Colts, Saints, and Ravens. Our models give them a 69-percent chance of victory, which is a drop-off in safety, but one which is offset by the much lower pick popularity (see Green Bay discussion).
Given the volatility in the early point spread and the remaining uncertainty around Mahomes’ status, it’s best to keep an eye on this situation throughout the week.
Get our Week 10 Survivor Pool pick recommendation
The teams above are the most popular survivor picks of Week 10, but that doesn’t mean one of them is the best pick for you. Your best NFL Week 10 survivor pick is the one that offers the ideal balance of safety, pick popularity, and future value for your specific pool.
We built our NFL Survivor Picks tools to do all of the necessary number crunching to figure out the best pick(s) for your pool. You simply answer a few questions about your survivor pool’s size and rules and enter the teams you’ve picked so far. Then, it provides customized Week 10 pick recommendations based on the latest matchup data, Vegas odds and public picking trends.
The result? Since 2017, each year on average more than 30 percent of our subscribers have reported winning a survivor pool.
We invite you to give it (and all our other premium NFL tools) a try. Good luck in your NFL survivor contests and office pools this week!