Week 13 FanDuel Picks: NFL DFS lineup advice, strategy for daily fantasy football GPP tournaments
Our FanDuel core plays for Week 13 start where they often do lately, with Panthers star RB Christian McCaffrey. Paying up for him still returns value almost every week, so it’s worth doing whether playing in a cash game or tournament. In our Week 13 GPP lineup, we stack the Tampa Bay-Jacksonville battle of Florida to try and win an NFL DFS tournament.
If you’re new to this article, we pick four players every week we’ll be overweight in our lineup builds. Then, we give an example of how we’d fill in around them in tournaments. Our “Core Four” this week is Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Williams, DJ Chark and Tyler Boyd. This isn’t an “optimal lineup”; rather, it’s an example of one you could build if you start with our “Core Four”. If you’re looking for more great NFL, NBA, or MLB, or PGA DFS advice, check me out on Twitter (@DFSBenj).
FanDuel Picks Week 13: NFL DFS example lineup for GPPs
QB: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers @ Jaguars ($7,600)
Winston is someone I play heavily in my GPP pool every week, and this week will be no different against a Jaguars defense that is struggling without Jalen Ramsey. While Jacksonville still has a great pass rush, their secondary, especially their safeties, has been exposed since the Ramsey trade.
CORE PLAY RB: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers vs. Redskins ($11,000)
I have no regrets about leaving McCaffrey out of my core plays last week, with Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry being better point per dollar plays. However, he makes a triumphant return to my core four this week despite a price rise up to $11,000. What’s interesting about his price this week is that while it is extremely high, there are plenty of great value wide receivers and a very cheap tight end – more on him later – that make his price tag easily affordable. In addition to that, I believe that the price tag will hold McCaffrey’s ownership down well below 20 percent despite a prime matchup at home against a pathetic Redskins team that ranks 28th in defensive DVOA. I like McCaffrey in cash games, but love him as a high leveraged GPP play.
CORE PLAY RB: Jonathan Williams, Colts vs. Titans ($6,800)
Finding value at RB on FanDuel is always difficult, but one player who is standing out is Williams at $6,800. Williams stepped in for injured Marlon Mack over the last two weeks and has looked every bit as good behind one of the league’s best offensive lines as Mack did. Williams saw 29 touches in his first start last week, and I’m projecting him for at least 20 touches yet again in a good matchup against a Titans defense that has struggled to contain opposing running backs this season. Williams isn’t a top-end talent, but the Colts offensive line is a mismatch for virtually every opposing defensive line in the league, and he should see all of the work around the goal line.
CORE PLAY WR: Tyler Boyd, Bengals vs. Jets ($6,000)
There are a few great options at wide receiver below $7,000 on FanDuel, and one of the best mid-range values on the entire slate is Boyd at $6,000. Boyd complained about his role in the offense last week and was rewarded with nine targets, which he parlayed into five catches for 101 yards and a touchdown. This was all with noodle-armed Ryan Finley in at quarterback. The Bengals have seen enough from Finley and will turn back to Andy Dalton at QB, which should pay off for Boyd and the rest of the offense. There is also a chance that A.J. Green returns to the lineup this week. While common sense would suggest that Green’s presence would hurt Boyd’s production, Boyd actually has much better splits with Green in the lineup soaking up more attention from opposing defenses. The cherry on top is a prime matchup against the Jets, who rank in the bottom-10 in passing defense DVOA this season.
CORE PLAY WR: DJ Chark, Jaguars vs. Buccaneers ($6,900)
We’ve looked to target opposing wide receivers against the Buccaneers all season long, and this week it’s the Jaguars who get the matchup. Jacksonville’s offense has struggled since Nick Foles returned from injury, but this is an ideal get-right game against a Bucs defense that is one of the most extreme passing funnels that we have seen in a few seasons. DJ Chark has established himself as one of the best wide receivers in the AFC, and his large frame is a mismatch for any of the corners that Tampa is likely to throw at him. The total in this game sits at 48.5, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the game fly over the total with Jacksonville’s defense struggling since the Jalen Ramsey trade and Tampa leading the league in overs this season with nine. I want as many pieces to this game as possible, and Chark is the best value at $6,900.
WR: Mike Evans, Buccaneers @ Jaguars ($7,700)
You can pair Winston with Evans or Chris Godwin, but we are going to take the savings of Evans since we are playing McCaffrey.
TE: Jack Doyle, Colts vs. Titans ($5,000)
Tight end is going to be extremely chalky this week with Doyle. Not only is he priced way down at $5,000, but he should also see an increased target share with Eric Ebron placed on IR and T.Y. Hilton questionable to play after aggravating his calf injury. I expect Doyle to be extremely popular, but he could legitimately see 10-plus targets at home against a middle of the road Titans defense.
FLEX: RB Derrius Guice, Redskins @ Panthers ($5,400)
This lineup build doesn’t leave us a ton of salary for our FLEX position, so we are going to take a shot on Guice at $5,400. Guice has looked good since coming back from a knee injury, and you would have to think that if the Redskins were smart (very questionable), they would give Guice the bulk of running back work over Adrian Peterson. Guice saw his touch share rise from 8 in Week 11 to 12 in Week 12, and a 20-touch week is not out of the question if the Redskins are in a competitive game. Guice is a GPP long shot play only, but I want to be on him before the breakout comes to raise his price rise above $6,000.
D/ST: Arizona Cardinals vs. Rams ($3,500)
I love the Cardinals D/ST at only $3,500, and their price is what allows you to jam Christian McCaffrey into your cash game lineup. They have a matchup at home against Jared Goff, who has severely regressed this season. Targeting defenses against the Rams when they are on the road has been profitable all season.