Nfl week 4 bets

The MMQB Staff’s Favorite Week 4 Bets Against the Spread

Last week’s NFL slate was one of the crazier ones in recent memory, highlighted by the Bills stunning the Vikings as 17-point underdogs, the largest underdog to win outright since 1995. The MMQB staff is thinking this week could have some upsets as well, as four of our seven best bets involve taking the points.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants: OVER 50 Points

The Giants offense is coming off its best performance of the season (thanks, Chad Wheeler), a 27-22 win against Houston. The Saints have the worst scoring defense in the league and the second-best scoring offense. Plus, both teams are dealing with some injuries on defense: Saints CB Patrick Robinson was put on IR this week with a broken ankle, and Giants CB Eli Apple (groin) and pass rusher Olivier Vernon (ankle) missed last week’s game and are working their way back. Week 3 reminded us that you never know what will happen on Sundays, but all signs point to a high-scoring game. — Jenny Vrentas

Miami Dolphins (+7) at New England Patriots

I’m not saying the undefeated Dolphins will win outright, but they’re a high-functioning team facing a club that’s hamstrung by its limited wide receivers and lack of healthy, fast defenders in the front seven. Plus, the Dolphins under Adam Gase have always played the Patriots tough. — Andy Benoit

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

As the world’s No. 1 Lions believer, I am writing this through tears. But in short: Both these teams played on a national stage last week, and folks are getting carried away with the results. A three-point spread suggests the public views these teams as equals, which just isn’t the case. The Cowboys have enough in the run game to pile up yards against a Lions defense that’s still very much a work in progress in the front seven—Detroit took advantage of its natural intel against the Patriots last week. And there are a couple of team trends working against the Lions: Since 1992 they are 23-45 against the spread on the road coming off a home victory, and 30-51 ATS coming off a game in which they allowed 14 points or fewer. — Gary Gramling

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (+3.5)

The Saints are likely the better team here, but I really like this situation for New York. The Saints are on the road for a second straight week, coming off three one-score games and an overtime divisional battle last Sunday. New Orleans is always beatable on the road, as Drew Brees’s passer rating is nearly 13 points worse when playing outdoors. On the defensive side, the Saints are 28th in Football Outsiders‘ DVOA. Even if Marshon Lattimore can contain Odell Beckham Jr., the Giants’ other weapons should be dangerous in the passing game, as New Orleans is 32nd in yards allowed per attempt. The visitors could go up early, but a better-rested, still-hungry home team will have the firepower to at least shrink the gap. — Jacob Feldman

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

The Steelers are at home in this one, so a line of three suggests that these are evenly matched teams. I’m sorry, but I don’t buy that for a second. The Steelers gave away what should have been a win over the Browns in Week 1, and still managed a tie despite five turnovers and a missed field goal in overtime. They got boat-raced by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, which is standard operating procedure for Mahomes and the Chiefs, and then knocked off the previously undefeated Buccaneers.

The Ravens, meanwhile, trounced the Bills (who cares?), lost at Cincinnati and beat a likely mediocre Denver team at home. The Steelers are second in the league in yards and sixth in yards per play, while the Ravens are 13th and 22nd, respectively. The Ravens have scored more points than the Steelers, but 47 of their 97 points came in the win over the Bills. The Steelers, on the other hand, are one of six teams with at least two 30-point games this year. The other five are the Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Falcons and Bengals. These are evenly matched teams? Hardly. The Steelers should be laying nearly a touchdown in this game, which, again, is in Pittsburgh, not just a field goal. I’m backing the Steelers with a ton of confidence in this one. — Michael Beller

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