Week 6 NFL Picks: Latest Betting Odds, Vegas Spreads and Projections
Featured Columnist October 9, 2018 Comments Comment Bubble Icon
The NFL is settling back into a sense of normalcy, something at least somewhat reflected in the Week 6 lines.
Unlike the week prior, the Week 6 odds out of Las Vegas have plenty of big lines that will make for some tough decisions. Four lines check in at seven or more points and some—like the Arizona Cardinals visiting the Minnesota Vikings—opened at north of the 10-point mark.
Granted, lines will adjust throughout the week so it is still best to put some early work in and capitalize before the shifts if the opportunity presents itself.
Here’s a look at the full slate and some analysis on a few of the exploitable lines.
Week 6 NFL Odds
Philadelphia (-3) at N.Y. Giants | O/U 44
Arizona at Minnesota (-10.5) | O/U 43
Carolina at Washington (-1.5) | O/U n/a
Chicago (-3) at Miami | O/U 42.5
Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets (-2.5) | O/U 45
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-2.5) | O/U 53
Seattle (-3) at Oakland | O/U 48
Buffalo at Houston (-8.5) | O/U n/a
L.A. Chargers (-1) at Cleveland | O/U 44
Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-3.5) | O/U 57.5
L.A. Rams (-7) at Denver | O/U 52.5
Baltimore (-3) at Tennessee | O/U 41
Jacksonville (-3) at Dallas | O/U 40.5
Kansas City at New England (-3) | O/U 59
San Francisco at Green Bay (-9.5) | O/U 46.5
Philadelphia (-3) at N.Y. Giants
Like a week ago, the NFL starts bettors off with a softball.
New England stomping Indianapolis was predictable and so is the Philadelphia Eagles hitting the road and taking care of the hapless New York Giants.
Those Eagles are only 2-3 and have lost two in a row, but tough games against Tennessee and Minnesota were bound to produce unpredictable results while Carson Wentz worked his way back into the swing of things.
For Wentz, it is a matter of those around him starting to step up:
Carson Wentz is averaging 41 pass attempts through three games. Has been sacked 12 times and taken 27 QB hits.
In a 23-21 loss to Minnesota, Wentz threw for 311 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, yet the difference outside of consistent pressure and allowing 300 passing yards was a fumble going back for a touchdown.
The Giants, at least, don’t pose much of a threat. New York is now 1-4 with Eli Manning still unable to provide a spark and the backfield behind him averaging less than four yards per carry. The defense has now let up 33 points in consecutive outings and Odell Beckham Jr. made some questionable comments to the media before the game, so this wasn’t a case of a fluke loss last week on a 63-yard field goal.
On a short week, it is much easier to trust Wentz than Manning. Road game or not, this seems like the final warm-up of sorts the Eagles need.
Prediction: Eagles 30, Giants 17
L.A. Rams (-7) at Denver
One of the bigger lines in Week 6 is perhaps the most confusing.
The Los Angeles Rams, still undefeated, have easily been one of the best teams in the NFL. But them going on the road and winning by seven points is a tough sell, especially considering they went to Seattle the week prior and only escaped with a 33-31 win.
Still, wanting to take the over would make some sense. Jared Goff is completing 72.3 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions and the ground game has seven scores to its name already. Constant pressure has the defense allowing just 19.6 points per game.
While the numbers are impressive, bettors might have more of an interest in a different set:
The Rams have become almost unbeatable on the road, going 9-1 since last season. From 2007-16, they were 20-59-1. Let’s take a look at the numbers and past history from Super Bowl teams. https://t.co/Y3j7302JN5
Either way, it doesn’t bode well for a Denver Broncos team that has lost three in a row, the latest a 34-16 shellacking at the hands of the New York Jets.
There, the Case Keenum project continued to stumble as he threw for 377 yards with two touchdowns and a pick and his defense allowed not only three touchdown passes to rookie Sam Darnold, but 323 rushing yards and a touchdown to the Jets’ ground game.
Bettors will simply have to decide if they trust Denver to show some fight or not. But from the outside looking in, Todd Gurley having a strong performance on the ground seems probable, Keenum is a liability and Sean McVay might just be the best coach in the NFL this side of Belichick, so seven points doesn’t seem like too much to ask.
Prediction: Rams 27, Broncos 17
San Francisco at Green Bay (-9.5)
On the other hand, a line flirting with double digits feels like it will only grow as the week progresses.
The Green Bay Packers at home against a one-win team tends to do that.
While the Packers are only 2-2-1, Aaron Rodgers has 10 touchdowns against one pick and—believe it or not—there is only so much he can do. Case in point, the Week 5, 31-23 loss to Detroit saw him throw three touchdowns with 442 yards and no interceptions while kicker Mason Crosby missed four field goals.
Keep in mind, too, Rodgers isn’t 100 percent:
#Packers coach Mike McCarthy on Aaron Rodgers, who banged his knee again yesterday: “He’s playing through a lot going into the game. And he played through a lot in the game. … He’s given us a lot.”
That one-win team is the San Francisco 49ers, a team tasked with hefty traveling while suffering from missing a starting quarterback and a three-game skid.
Not only have the Cardinals lost three in a row, they let the Arizona Cardinals grab their first win of the season in Week 5, a 28-18 blowout in which new starting quarterback C.J. Beathard could only manage two touchdowns and interceptions.
At home, Rodgers gets to feast on a San Francisco defense ranked 29th as it allows 29.2 points per game, meaning he won’t even let somebody like Crosby let him down. Again, bettors might want to grab this one before the line only grows.
Prediction: Packers 33, 49ers 14