NFL Picks: Week 7 Computer Predictions
Featured Columnist October 18, 2012 Comments Comment Bubble Icon
NFL Picks: Week 7 Computer Predictions
We will brag on for weeks when we go 12-2 ATS, and we will hang our heads in shame on weeks when we go 2-12 ATS.
So we hang-dog today as we reveal the computer picks for Week 7 of the NFL season because the computer really did go 2-12 ATS in Week 6.
My own personal selections came out a bit better at 7-7 ATS in a week that saw underdogs chew up favorites at a record pace.
Last week got off to a rough start for the OddsShark.com Prediction Computer, as it picked the Steelers to beat the Titans. This week, it fires up with a 28.4-21.5 result for San Francisco over Seattle.
That won’t be enough to cover the eight-point spread at most shops as of Thursday afternoon.
49ers Will Cover Spread vs Seattle
The last time the 49ers were upset, they responded with a blowout win (over the Jets). Seattle is 13-2-1 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog, but it struggles on the road and this is a short week on national TV. Did we mention it is 0-3 SU and ATS past three against the 49ers?
The line is down to -7.5 at some shops we track, indicating money on Seattle. But we are not buying and figure the computer is close here.
Prediction: Seattle 21.5 San Francisco 28.4 -8 SEA 38.5 O
Computer: Seattle +8 | OVER
Mike Pickett: Take SF -8
Giants Will Beat Redskins and Cover
A week after stomping the 49ers, the Giants return home. It’s a letdown spot, but also a divisional home game, which should blunt any complacency.
The spread has been bet down from -7 to -5.5, but the computer is projecting a 10-point victory for the G-Men. New York almost always wins at home in October (15-2 SU past 17 October home games). Beware the Redskins and their 4-1 ATS run as a road underdog.
Prediction: Washington 27.6 NY Giants 37.5 -5.5 NYG 48.5 O
Computer: NYG -5.5 | OVER
MIke Pickett: Take NYG -5.5
Texans vs Ravens: Collapsing Defenses?
A pair of teams that lost their emotional leaders on defense will not play a low-scoring game. That’s what I think, and that’s what the computer says.
Baltimore is 6-0 lifetime against the Texans, according to the NFL odds database, but this where the streak ends.
Prediction: Baltimore 30.8 Houston 33.3 -4 BAL 47 O
Computer: Baltimore +4 | OVER
Mike Pickett: Take Texans -4
Browns Pull Upset vs Colts
Last week, eight underdogs won outright. This week, the computer is picking only one straight-up upset, and that is Cleveland at Indy.
The Colts are 2-8 ATS in 10 games as a favorite. Cleveland is 7-2-1 ATS in 10 recent games as an underdog, and it just snapped a 15-game SU losing skid as a pup last week.
Prediction: Cleveland 19.8 Indianapolis 15.6 -3.5 CLE 44 U
Computer: Cleveland +4 | UNDER
Mike Pickett: Take Browns +4
Cowboys Struggle as Chalk, Could Lose in Carolina
When you talk about teams that choke as favorites, the Dallas Cowboys always come to mind.
Sorry, Dallas fans, but you can’t argue with a 3-13-1 ATS run in 17 recent games as chalk. Being favored means you should win, dummies.
The computer predicts a close game with Dallas winning but not covering. I disagree and think the Cowboys will romp here, rebounding from some terrible recent losses.
Prediction: Dallas 16.5 Carolina 14.9 +2.5 CAR 45.5 U
Computer: Carolina +2.5 | UNDER
Mike Pickett: Take Cowboys -2.5
Tampa Bay Picked to Beat Saints
The computer likes Tampa Bay this week to follow up its Week 6 victory with an upset of the Saints.
But New Orleans comes off a bye at 1-4, and it is still in the hunt for a Wild Card. The Saints have covered seven of 10 at Tampa and are a dynamite 10-1 ATS in this situation as a favorite of two or less points.
Computer says Tampa outright; I say Saints to cover.
Prediction: New Orleans 23.2 Tampa Bay 29.6 +2 TB 49 O
Computer: Tampa +2 | OVER
Mike Pickett: Take Saints -2
Bills Beat Titans, Game Goes Under
The Titans are 7-1 against the Bills and 6-2 ATS against them, but lots of money is going behind Buffalo here, according to the NFL consensus data.
Tennessee has failed to cover in five straight on the road, and it faces a spirited Bills team that save coach Chan Gailey’s job with an OT win in Arizona last week.
The computer says it’s close; I say not. We are both right in picking the Bills to cover three points.
Prediction: Tennessee 12 Buffalo 17.8 -3 BUF 45 U
Computer: Bills -3 | UNDER
Mike Pickett: Take Bills -3
Packers Win, but Fail to Cover in St Louis
Some teams are expected to fall into letdown holes, while others take care of business and beat inferior teams.
Throw Green Bay in the latter category and we bet then to easily cover six points in St. Louis. The computer says 24-21 Green Bay, which would be a Rams cover. We see something like 30-3.
Prediction: Green Bay 24.4 St. Louis 21.1 6 STL 44.5 O
Computer: Rams +6 | OVER
Mike Pickett: Take Packers -6
Vikings Resume Winning Ways vs Banged-Up Cardinals
You should know that Arizona has never won at Minnesota since our database started logging scores and point spreads in 1980.
It is 0-7 SU in that time frame. But Arizona has also won seven of its past nine games when it was an underdog. And despite its injury woes, it knows the Vikes are not comfortable with the role of favorite (2-8 ATS according to the Week 7 trends report).
Prediction: Arizona 21.7 Minnesota 24.4 -4.5 ARI 40.5 O
Computer: Arizona +4.5 | OVER
Mike Pickett: Take Cards +4.5
Raiders Jaguars in Lowest-Scoring Week 7 Game?
Can this game really be 10-7? That’s what the computer says, but we can’t buy that.
The Jags are 4–0 SU and ATS in the past four meetings with Oakland, and the Raiders are a money-sucking 3-17-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite.
Are those enough reasons to fade the Raiders at home, even against the team with the best odds of finishing last in the league (according to new NFL props posted today by Bovada)?
We like the Jaguars. Actually, we don’t, but we trust the Raiders even less as chalk.
Prediction: Jacksonville 7.3 Oakland 9.7 -5 JAC 43 U
Computer: Jaguars +5 | UNDER
Mike Pickett: Take Jaguars +5
Patriots Double-Digit Favorites vs Jets
The logic says that the Patriots will be so mad after choking at Seattle that they will absolutely destroy the Jets.
The oddsmakers feed this theory by making the Jets 12-point road underdogs.
But then reality sets in, bettors look at the Jets record of 9-3 ATS the past 12 games they were an underdog of nine or more points and back New York.
33-23 might be the right score, but it’s still not a Pats cover.
Prediction: NY Jets 23.6 New England 33.5 -11.5 NYJ 47 O
Computer: Jets +11.5 | OVER
Mike Pickett: Take Jets +11.5
Steelers in Trouble on Road vs Bengals
By now, everyone has seen how bad the Steelers are on the road (0-7 ATS streak).
By now, however, everyone has seen how badly the Steelers have dominated the Bengals over the years (Steelers 14-4-1 ATS in games at Cincinnati since 1992).
So as a PK in Vegas, Pittsburgh is getting lots of love from bettors. It gets some from the computer and its 25-22 prediction, but none from me.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 24.7 Cincinnati 22.2 PK PIT 46 O
Computer: Pittsburgh PK | OVER
Mike Pickett: Take Bengals PK
Bears Will Cover Monday Nighter vs Lions
The Lions have lost nine of 11 trips to Soldier Field, and the Bears are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite.
So even as a divisional clash with a significant point spread, the computer sees the Bears winning easily on Monday Night Football.
Better than the spread, we like the UNDER play here, as Detroit has trended that way on MNF, and we see Chicago’s defense shuttering the Lion attack.
Prediction: Detroit 22 Chicago 39.8 -6 CHI 47.5 O
Computer: Bears -6 | OVER
Mike Pickett: Take Bears -6