NFL Week 7 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks
Week 7 is shaping up to be a tough betting week, as only one game (Dolphins at Bills) has a double-digit spread and 10 of the 14 games have a spread of four points or fewer. With that being said, there are a couple games that stand out and can provide an edge whether you’re looking to bet against the spread, on the moneyline, or on the over/under. Let’s get right into it.
All data presented is as of Thursday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard. Figures below calculated by wagering one unit on each touted bet with -110 spread odds.
NFL Week 7 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week
Texans (+1) at Colts
The Texans made a major statement with their road victory over the Chiefs last week. Not only did Deshaun Watson and company make clutch plays offensively, but the Houston defense also came to play and limited Patrick Mahomes’ offense to 24 points.
The Texans are solid up front on both sides of the ball, have a slew of dynamic playmakers on offense (shout out to DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, even though he dropped three touchdown passes last week), and simply have more overall talent than the Colts, who are coming into this matchup rested off of a bye week. If you believe in riding momentum, placing a bet on Houston, who posted 53 and 31 points over its past two games, seems like a smart idea.
Indianapolis’s defense has allowed quarterbacks to complete 69.9 percent of their passes this season. Under Bill O’Brien, the Texans have gone 24-8 against defenses that allow quarterbacks to complete 64 percent or more of their passes on average.
So far, 58 percent of the money has been wagered on the Texans (per BetQL’s NFL consensus picks dashboard).
If you’re also a college football fan, don’t forget about Watson’s alma mater Clemson taking on Louisville this weekend, and check out who BetQL’s college football expert picks has winning the game.
NFL Week 7 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week
Rams (-150) at Falcons
After Jared Goff and the Rams passing offense was shockingly held to just 78 passing yards by the 49ers, expect Sean McVay’s team to come out firing against a vulnerable Falcons secondary that has been shredded in recent weeks. Further, newcomer Jalen Ramsey is likely to play and could shadow the hobbled Julio Jones. Plus, Todd Gurley might suit up after missing last week’s contest due to a thigh injury. He will add another dimension to LA’s offense.
Atlanta’s Cover 3 scheme simply isn’t working and the team has allowed quarterbacks to throw for 272.5 yards per game, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL. Expect Goff and his talented trio of receivers (Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks) to step up and deliver.
The Rams have gone 16-4 on the road in McVay’s tenure, and the Falcons have gone 6-12 following an upset loss under Dan Quinn.
Check out BetQL to see what games our NFL picks are on.
NFL Week 7 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week
OVER 54.5 (Rams at Falcons)
Although the Rams should come out on top, the Falcons offense has been clicking lately while LA’s defense has allowed 55, 30 and 20 points, respectively, in consecutive weeks. Matt Ryan in particular has put up big numbers and been asked to throw the ball 70.1 percent of the time, the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Even if Julio Jones is shadowed by Ramsey, he has shown up in tough matchups before and tight end Austin Hooper and receivers Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu are viable targets, as is Devonta Freeman out of the backfield. If Atlanta is playing from behind, don’t expect it to lay down and play dead. The Falcons will take shots downfield and be desperate to put up points and save their season. After all, they’re 1-5.
Expect plenty of points to be scored in what might end up being a shootout. An overwhelming percentage of the tickets have been written on the OVER and the majority of the money has been wagered on the OVER as well.
You can find all updated NFL odds, lines and spreads at BetQL!