Pickwatch nfl picks

Upset Watch Week 4

Upset watch week 4 and we’re back to more normal levels of. upsetting.

Apologies for the Upset Watch delay folks

Unfortunately our text editor decided to delete all of the work I did tonight, no less than twice, and while I won’t bore you with the details, suffice to say I’ve had better evenings when it deleted everything after I’d finished some pretty decent and well-reasoned (at least I thought so. ) statistical reasoning for the below picks.

I’ll post my picks and come back to them on Friday to update the blurbs once I’ve recovered my composure, Frank the Tank style tomorrow.

Happy picking (15-8 on the season for upset picks)


Tampa Bay (+3) @ Chicago

Detroit (+3.5) @ Dallas

Minnesota (+7) @ LA Rams

I’m re-writing this blurb now – I believe Kirk Cousins’s experience last year leading his Washington team to victory in LA will be critical. The Rams went into that game with a similar level of momentum and hype, and Cousins – with a far worse team – took the ‘skins to victory on the road. The Vikes have been undervalued because of an atrocious performance on Sunday, but perhaps the real lesson for all concerned was that the Bills are only as bad as the worst team in the NFL can be. and that ain’t bad.

Miami (+7.5) @ New England

New York Jets (+7.5) @ Jacksonville

Houston (+1.5) @ Indianapolis

Sunday update:

Cleveland +3 @ Oakland


Buffalo (+10.5) @ Green Bay

New Orleans (-3.5) @ New York Giants

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-3)

Cincinnati @ Atlanta (-4)

Philadelphia (-3) @ Tennessee

Kansas City (-4.5) @ Denver

Seattle (-3) @ Arizona

San Francisco @ LA Chargers (-10.5)

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