Gallagher Premiership – who will be relegated? Odds, form and run-ins
Newcastle Falcons, Worcester Warriors, Bristol Bears and Leicester Tigers currently in bottom four
- 10:40, 27 MAR 2019
- Updated 11:09, 27 MAR 2019
The Gallagher Premiership takes a break this weekend but the big question remains – who will be relegated this season?
Recent wins for Newcastle Falcons and Worcester Warriors have blown open the battle to beat the drop with five rounds remaining.
Who will be playing Championship rugby next season? CoventryLive rugby writer Bobby Bridge takes a look at the current bottom six and assesses their chances of survival. You can have your say in the poll at the bottom of the story.
Current league position: 12th
Relegation odds: 7/4
Form (last five): WWWLL
Remaining games: Saracens (A), Leicester (H), Northampton (H), Gloucester (A), Bristol (H)
Hopes in 100 words: Newcastle seemed dead and buried just three rounds ago but a hat-trick of Gallagher Premiership victories has thrust them back into the fight for survival.
Their victory against Sale Sharks displayed the qualities needed to claw themselves out of trouble.
Next up, Dean Richards’ side face Saracens, away, who are in European action this weekend while Newcastle rest. But you’d still back Sarries to take the win.
Crucially, Newcastle have three home games in their final four rounds. If, as expected, they lose at Allianz Park, they’d need to win at least three of their four remaining games to survive.
Current league position: 11th
Relegation odds: 2/1
Form (last five): WLLWL
Remaining games: Wasps (A), Sale Sharks (H), Gloucester (H), Northampton Saints (A), Saracens (H)
Victory at Ashton Gate was simply massive for Worcester Warriors. Defeating Bristol Bears on their own patch stopped them from being leapfrogged by Newcastle.
Winger Josh Adams returned from a glorious Six Nations with Wales to immediately inspire his club.
After tackling Wasps they face four of the current top six. Could the home game finale with Saracens be key with the current champions likely to have one eye on the semi-final the following weekend?
Worcester’s Challenge Cup commitments could provide an added distraction, or a momentum builder, depending on your take, as they tackle Harlequins at Sixways on Saturday.
Current league position: 9th
Relegation odds: 4/1
Form (last five): LWWLL
Remaining games: Bath (A), Saracens (H), Leicester (A), Sale (H), Newcastle (A)
Hopes in a hundred words: Bristol were sucked back into the relegation equation with a home defeat to Worcester.
They are the only side in the bottom five who have more away games than home during their run in – although one of them is at Twickenham against Bath.
The Bears, along with Worcester, are the only sides in that quintet still competing n Europe as they travel to La Rochelle on Sunday in the Challenge Cup. Could progression be damaging to their hopes?
If their big hitters stay fit, Pat Lam’s side should have the fire power to avoid a second relegation in three years.
Current league position: 10th
Relegation odds: 9/2
Form (last five): LLWLL
Remaining games: Exeter Chiefs (H), Newcastle (A), Bristol (H), Harlequins (A), Bath (H)
Hopes in a hundred words: All fingers are currently pointing at Leicester Tigers after their harrowing home defeat to Northampton Saints.
They are in the thick of the relegation fight with odds of 9/2 reflecting that reality.
Their backline is brimming with internationals that surely will click to stave of the threat of Championship rugby coming to Welford Road.
But many of those stars were in place for that visit of Northampton and fell horribly short of the mark.
Deep in the darkest fears of any Leicester Tigers fan is the prospect of being relegated on the final day, at home, against Bath.
Current league position: 8th
Relegation odds: 18/1
Form (last five): LLLLW
Remaining games: Worcester Warriors (H), Exeter Chiefs (A), Saracens (H), Bath (A), Harlequins (H)
Hopes in a hundred words: Eight defeats in nine Premiership games has seen Wasps plunge like a stone down the table.
While Dai Young’s side have been competitive in all of their four losing causes of late, a lack of point-scoring firepower is increasingly worrying.
In those nine games mentioned above, Wasps have scored over 20 points on only three occasions and have registered just 16 tries.
With departing star players not recapturing the form of old and other influential performers dogged by injury setbacks, much will hinge on how close Wasps can get to fielding their best starting 15 during their final five games.
Current league position: 7th
Relegation odds: 100/1
Form (last five): LWLLW
Remaining games: Bristol Bears (H – Twickenham), Gloucester (A), Sale Sharks (A), Wasps (H), Leicester Tigers (A)
Hopes in a hundred words: It seems ludicrous to bring Bath into this debate given they are one weekend of positive results from moving into fifth, such is the nature of the Gallagher Premiership this season.
But Todd Blackadder’s men are as close to bottom place as they are the play offs with 10 points separating them from both.
For all the dark clouds that are hovering over Leicester Tigers, Bath are just one win better off.
Given the reams of talent at their disposal and with a sizeable headstart, Bath’s sights will soon switch to the top six if they overcome Bristol at HQ.
Who do you think is going down and the current league table
Our list takes in the bottom six teams, but all the clubs outside of the top four are in the equation when it comes to sides who can be pulled into the relegation battle.
Sale Sharks, currently sixth, are 200-1 to go down as are Northampton Saints, who lie fifth. Both are still in Europe with games being played this weekend.
So, the big question, who will be going down this season? Cast your vote below and let us know your thoughts on social media on Twitter at @waspsrugbylive or Wasps correspondent @bobby_bridge – on Facebook, you can comment on our Wasps – Coventry Live page and Bobby Bridge’s Rugby Journalist page.