Survivor pool week 3 2020

NFL Survivor Picks

2020 Survivor Picks

Driven by years of research, our picks, tools, and articles give you the best chance to win your NFL survivor pool.

Use our picks on all the popular survivor sites, including:

  • ESPN
  • Yahoo! Fantasy
  • Fox Fantasy Games
  • RunYourPool.com
  • OfficeFootballPool.com

Outlasted 95%

Our picks have survived longer than 95% of players on Yahoo! in 3 of the last 5 years.

29-0 Streak

Our top pick won for 29 weeks straight, including a perfect 17-0 season in 2011-12.

50,000 Simulations

We simulate the season 50,000 times to determine each team’s future value.

“The smart pool players use TeamRankings.”

Daryl Morey
General Manager, Houston Rockets
Co-founder, MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
TeamRankings Customer

Here’s How It Works

Get picks for your pool in 3 easy steps.

“Won my 30 person survivor pool again, thanks to you guys!”

“I would not have won my survivor pool without your strategy tips.”

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What’s Included In Your NFL Survivor Pool Picks Subscription?

  • Full features for NFL regular season. This product covers NFL survivor pools only, and all features are available for the entire NFL regular season.
  • Limited coverage of NFL playoffs. For the minority of players in pools that extend into the playoffs, we provide a general playoff pick survivor strategy writeup.
  • Weekly information delivery via web site. All information is delivered via our web site. Data-based features are typically made available on or before Tuesday afternoon each week.
  • Dynamic data updates. You can refresh your pick rankings during the week to adjust for changes in pick popularity, Thursday night game results, and betting line movement.

Key football survivor product features include the following:

  • Custom Pick Ranking Report Card
    shows key data (win odds, popularity, future value) and overall ranking for every team each week, customized for your pool.
  • Optimal Path Tool
    leverages our algorithms to identify your optimal picks for every future week, at the current point in time.
  • Season Planner Tool
    shows future week win odds for all teams and enables you to evaluate and compare different options for future picks.
  • Expected Value Calculator
    lets you forecast the popularity of various teams in your specific pool, and calculates the resulting top value picks for the current week.

What’s A Survivor Pool?

  • Survivor pools are also referred to as eliminator pools, suicide pools, knockout pools, or last man standing pools
  • Using traditional NFL survivor rules, you pick one team per week, and you are eliminated from the pool if your pick loses; in addition, you can only pick each team once per season
  • Typically the final surviving player wins the entire prize pool; the prize pool may be split if there are multiple survivors at the end of the pool, or the last few survivors might all agree a pot split before potentially being eliminated
  • Many variants of the traditional survivor format exist, including pools with “strikes” (your pick can lose at least once), “re-buys” (you can buy back into the pool if you lose early), or multiple picks per week (usually only later in the season)
  • If your pool involves picking the winners of multiple games per week, then you’re probably looking for our Football Pick’em Picks product

Key Benefits

  • Increased Long Term Pool Profits. In most cases, our picks should help you win prizes in NFL survivor pools 2x-10x as frequently as your average opponent. The more pools you play in and the higher the stakes, the more that edge is worth.
  • Better Chance For Bragging Rights. Even if you don’t win a prize, having a better shot to outlast lots of your opponents, or even just one specific opponent (e.g. that boss or spouse of yours who thinks they know football), is worth a lot to some people.
  • Time Savings. A lot of people want to participate in the camaraderie and profit opportunities of survivor pools, but simply don’t have hours to devote to weekly pick research. Our product can pay for itself in a week based on time saved alone.
  • Decreased Nail Biting And Hair Pulling. Being human, you may find it hard to pick against teams you personally like, and you second guess half your decisions a minute after you make them. We strip out all the agony and bias from your pick making.

Thanks to this range of benefits, our customer base is quite diverse, and includes:

  • Hard core survivor players looking for any incremental edge they can get
  • Busy people who want to play at a high level, but value their free time
  • Football experts looking to apply a more data-driven approach to pick making
  • Football neophytes looking to instantly become perennial prize contenders

How We Deliver An Edge

  • We’ve developed proprietary computer models that can simulate NFL survivor pools of various sizes and formats
  • These simulations not only forecast game results, but also use historical pick popularity data to project how all players in a given pool will make their picks
  • Running millions of pool simulations gives us a deep understanding of the best picking strategies in many different scenarios
  • Our system leverages that research to identify the weekly survivor picks that maximize your expected prize winnings, based on data you enter about your specific pool
  • Our algorithmic game predictions, which incorporate betting odds and objective stats, provide the foundation for our picks
  • Picks are then customized for your pool’s size, specific rules (like strikes, multiple picks per week, or a total season wins tiebreaker)
  • Our algorithmically customized pool picks are unique in the industry, and provide a substantial edge over generic “expert picks” from other sources

Will I Win My Survivor Pool This Year?

We would be crazy to guarantee that or set that expectation.

Playing in NFL survivor pools is less risky than playing the lottery, but it’s still a huge gamble. Probably more than any other pool, the format of survivor pools greatly exposes every player to the cruel whims of randomness.

Just look at the numbers. It’s relatively rare for any NFL team to have an 80% chance or greater of winning a game. So even if you play it safe and pick the most likely teams to win each week, you’d typically have about a 1-in-5 chance of your pick losing every single week.

Translation: Even playing it as safe as possible, the life expectancy of a typical survivor entry is around 3 weeks. It’s pretty crazy when you think about it.

In addition, years of research has demonstrated that in most survivor pools, the majority of players is too conservative early on. So taking some additional risk with your picks in the opening weeks often increases your expected winnings.

That moves optimal strategy for survivor pools even more toward a highly volatile, “boom or bust” type of approach. But if you’re playing to maximize winnings, like we do, you do what the numbers say. It’s much better to win once and come in dead last the next nine years, than to do pretty well (but not win anything) for ten years straight.

Every week, there is a very real chance that our top recommended pick will lose, whether it’s Week 1 or Week 15. All of our customers need to be prepared for this.

So if you are serious enough about survivor pools that you’ll buy our NFL Survivor Picks product, we strongly recommend playing multiple entries in your pool(s). It provides added insurance against bad luck early on, helps protect your investment in our service, and also lets you take greater advantage of all the research we do.

In the long term, our survivor picks should provide a very strong ROI, and our overall performance over the past five years is a solid indicator of our skill level. But such a highly volatile game format demands realistic expectations and an over-many-years perspective.

Does NFL Survivor Picks Cover My Pool’s Rules?

We cover hundreds of different NFL Survivor Pool Picks rules variations, and you’re able to get picks customized for your exact pool’s rules. You will be asked to setup each of your pools at the beginning of the season or when you first get picks, and answer a few questions to get the week’s best pick(s) for your pool picks entry or survivor picks portfolio.

From there, we do all the work for you. Our Survivor Picks product is able to accommodate popular rules variations including, but not limited to, the following:

  • Multiple picks per week
  • Strikes and second chance/re-buy survivor pools
  • Pools that extend into the NFL playoffs with our playoff writeup
  • Tiebreakers for team winning percentages
  • Coverage of standard and complex rules from popular survivor and suicide pool providers like ESPN Eliminator Challenge, NFL.com NFL Survivor, Yahoo Survival Football, RunYourPool.com, OfficeFootballPool.com, and more!
  • Survivor pick portfolios with multiple entries

Plus, our Expected Value (EV) Calculator and Survivor Season Planner Grid provide great survivor pool picks research tools to make your own picks.

NOTE: While we don’t support Survivor Loser Pools (picking one team that will lose each week instead of one weekly winner), our subscribers can use our EV Calculator as a resource to help make weekly loser picks.

Have more questions about whether we cover your rules? Feel free to email us at support@teamrankings.com.

Does NFL Survivor Picks Include the Full Regular Season?

Yes! NFL Survivor Picks provides weekly picks for NFL survivor, NFL suicide, and NFL eliminator pools from Survivor Week 1 through Week 17. In addition, for pools that extend into the playoffs we offer a limited writeup with survivor strategy for all four NFL playoff weeks.

Plus, our NFL Survivor Picks Season Planner tool provides win projections for the entire 2018 NFL season. We also support pools that start after Week 1 of the NFL regular season.

The NFL Survivor Picks subscription is just a one-time fee, and all survivor features listed above are included!

How Have Your Survivor Pool Picks Performed In The Past?

For the 2017 season, our customers reported winning over four times as much money as one would expect, based on their pool size and number of entries played. This translated to over $1 million in Survivor prize winnings for TeamRankings subscribers in 2017 alone.

For a detailed breakdown of how we track and measure our results, see our NFL Survivor Picks Historical Performance Review.

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