Vegas nfl week 5
Opening Line Report – Week 5
October 2, 2018
By Joe Williams
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We have passed the quarter-pole of the National Football League regular season and there are just two teams with unblemished records, the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams . We almost lost the Chiefs from the ranks of the unbeaten on Monday night, but they rallied from 10 points down on the road against the Denver Broncos to not only win, but cover a 3.5-point number, too. The Chiefs are also the only team in the NFL with a perfect 4-0 ATS record through four games.
Week 5 features sees two more teams on byes, as the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be on the shelf. The Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins are also back from their Week 4 rest.
(Consensus Odds as of Tuesday)
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10, 51.5)
QB Andrew Luck missed the entire 2017 season due to his shoulder injury, but he finally looks like he is back to his pre-injury form. He dropped a career-high 464 yards on the Texans in an overtime loss at home, but he also lost WR T.Y. Hilton to a hamstring injury. Head coach Frank Reich said it doesn’t look good that Hilton will be ready for the quick turnaround in Foxboro. It’s a bit concerning since the Colts have struggled in the run game, now will be missing their biggest receiving weapon for Luck.
The Pats dropped the Dolphins from the ranks of the unbeaten with an emphatic win on Sunday. Most shops have the Pats favored by 10 for this one, but Treasure Island had New England listed at -9.5. The Patriots have covered each of their two home games and the ‘under’ is 2-0 at Gillette Stadium this season.
Baltimore Ravens (-3, 47.5) at Cleveland Browns
The Ravens have won and covered five consecutive meetings in this series, and the ‘under’ has cashed in three in a row. Cleveland hasn’t had a lot of success against most teams, but they have especially struggled against Baltimore. The last win on home turf against the Ravens came on Nov. 3, 2013. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the past five meetings on the shores of Lake Erie. The Westgate Superbook opened the Ravens are -1.5 and they’re already up to -3 in less than 24 hours, likely aided by Baltimore’s impressive showing on Sunday night in Pittsburgh.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 51.5)
Perhaps the two best teams in the AFC square off in Kansas City when the Jaguars meet the Chiefs at Arrowhead. It will be interesting to see how Jacksonville’s lockdown defense handles QB Patrick Mahomes and the high-octane Kansas City offense. global book [. ] opened this one at 52.5, and it was quickly down to 51.5. There is a large dispartity in the total line, however, as Westgate had the number at 47.5 on Monday afternoon, up to 48.5 by kickoff on Monday.
Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 39) at Buffalo Bills
The Titans picked up a big win against the defending Super Bowl champs last week, following up a nice road win against the Jags. The Bills, on the other hand, were blanked in Green Bay after their shocking win in Minnesota the previous week. Most shops have the Titans installed as 3.5-point favorites, although you can find a bargain at the Golden Nugget and Westgate at -3.
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-7, 44.5)
The Panthers are coming off a bye, and they’re 4-1 ATS in the past five coming back from their off week. If you’re not feeling the flat seven, you can still catch the Cats -6.5 at Treasure Island as well as Southpoint .
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 57.5)
The Falcons allowed 79 points over their past two games at home, both losses, including one against the AFC North rivals of the Steelers. The Steelers have also been pretty shabby on defense, so it’s no surprise this game features the highest total on the board. Atlanta has allowed 30.5 points per game (PPG), while Pittsburgh has yielded 29.0 PPG to date.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 50.5) at Detroit Lions
The ‘over’ has cashed in five straight meetings in this NFC North rivalry, including each of the past three battles at Ford Field. Green Bay was swept in this series last season, but they also spent a majority of 2017 without QB Aaron Rodgers. Despite last season’s sweep, the books have the Pack listed as slight favorites. If you like Green, TI has them listed at just -1.
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 50.5)
The Dolphins were dumped by the Patriots in Foxboro by a 38-7 score, splashing cold water on their 3-0 SU/ATS start. Now, they’ll meet a Cincinnati club which has posted 34 or more points in three of their four outings, with the ‘over’ hitting in all four contests. You can still catch this one at a flat 50 points at the Golden Nugget as well as Southpoint .
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 53.5)
The Raiders will battle the Chargers in Carson. In the past six home games, the Bolts are 4-2 SU, while going 9-4 SU in their past 13 home contests against the Silver and Black. However, the Chargers are just 2-7 ATS in their past nine games at home against the Raiders. The ‘under’ is also 10-2-1 in the past 13 home games against the Raiders, so perhaps the line is rather high. The Strat has the line at 54.0 as of Tuesday early morning.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 41)
The Cards were shuffled to 0-4 SU by the Seahawks, losing a heartbreaker at home. Arizona enters as the only winless team in the league at the quarter-pole, although there is optimism with QB Josh Rosen. The 49ers are down to backup QB C.J. Beathard, as QB Jimmy Garoppolo is done for the season due to a knee injury. Beathard wasn’t a total disaster, though, and San Francisco covered in his first start last week against the Chargers.
The ‘under’ is 3-1 in the past four home games for the Niners against the Cards, and the total has gone under in six of the previous eight in this series. This is the second-lowest total on the board, with all major Vegas books consistent at 41 points.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 44.5)
It’s a rematch of the NFC Championship Game played Jan. 21, and the Vikings hope it goes a little better. The Vikings were destroyed 38-7 by QB Nick Foles and company. He will be holding a clipboard in this one, while Minnesota’s starter in that game, QB Case Keenum, is now playing his trade in Denver. Most books have held steady at -3, while Southpoint has Philly laying -3.5.
Los Angeles Rams (-7, 50.5) at Seattle Seahawks
The Rams won and pushed at a majority of shops last Thursday against Minnesota, and they have had a few extra days to prepare for Seattle. The Seahawks had major drama with safety Earl Thomas breaking his leg and then showing off his displeasure while leaving the field, saluting the Seattle sideline.
Seattle has been one of the best teams against the number against divisional foes, hitting at a 56.7 percent clip at 17-13-2 ATS since 2013. The Rams, meanwhile, rank 27th in the NFL in divisional ATS, going 13-18, or 41.9 percent.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-3.5, 45)
The Lonestar State battle takes place on Sunday night at NRG Stadium, and the Texans are flying high after Frank Reich gifted them a win in Indy, their first of the season in four tries.
This one will be interesting, as it’s another one of those solid defense vs. high-flying offense matchups. Dallas rans No. 5 in the NFL by allowing just 306.2 total yards per game, while Houston has posted 24.0 PPG through four contests. A majority of the books have the home team listed at three and a hook, but you can find a flat three at Caesars/Harrah’s , as well as Treasure Island .
Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 52.5)
The Redskins are back from their bye, and rest hasn’t done them very much good. They’re just 2-8 ATS over their past 10 games following a week off.
Meanwhile, the Saints have scored 76 points over the past two games and they’re averaging 34.3 PPG through four outings. However, New Orleans is 0-2 ATS in two home games, which is likely why they’re favored by less than a touchdown after laying 10 in each of their first two games in the Crescent City. You can still catch the Saints at -6 at Treasure Island, while you can grab the ‘Skins at +7 at Golden Nugget if you’re feeling the road team instead.