DraftKings NFL Lineup Advice: Week 1 (Full Slate)
Kenny Golladay faces a Cardinals defense this week who is down their top-two corners.
Week 1 is always a tricky beast but it does present some variables that the DFS sites open themselves up to. The biggest thing that we’re going to key in on is their sloppy pricing, as these prices have been available for weeks. That allows us to capitalize on players who have seen major bumps in that span and it gives us some unbelievable values. We’re going to go ahead and fade the Thursday night game because I really don’t trust the Packers against an elite Bears defense and simply don’t want any of the Chicago weapons with how much they spread the ball around. With that in mind, let’s break down this Week 1 on DraftKings.
Cheap QB of the Week
Nick Foles (JAC) – $5,300 vs. KC
Who would have thought that I’d use Nick Foles as my first NFL DFS recommendation for FantasyPros? While it may sound ugly on the surface, this dude is one of the best values out there. While going off of narratives is strange, it’s going to be hard to imagine the Jaguars not allowing this guy to throw the ball at will. They handed him this offense in the offseason and it’s time that the Jaguars finally have a solid QB.
A Super Bowl run in 2017 is the main reason Jacksonville trusts him but his final four games last year were no fluke either. In fact, Foles averaged 324 passing yards and 1.8 TDs per game in that span. That’s all you can ask for from a guy this cheap and there appear to be weapons like Dede Westbrook, D.J. Chark, and Marqise Lee prone to breakout with a new QB. My favorite part about Foles this week is this matchup though, facing a Chiefs defense who allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing QBs last season. A lot of that is because teams have to play catch-up against this elite offense and that could be the case here with a sky-high total of 52.
Cash Game Running Back
Chris Carson (SEA) – $5,700 vs. CIN
Carson should be the chalkiest player of the week and rightfully so. We’re talking about the unquestioned top RB for an offense who led the league in carries last season facing one of the worst defenses in football. In fact, the Bengals allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs last season and that’s scary against a guy who broke out in the second half last year.
Over his final eight games last season, Carson accumulated 149 carries for 674 rushing yards and seven TDs. That doesn’t even take into consideration that the Seahawks want to make him a major part of their passing game this season, according to coaches. All of that makes Carson the best cash game play on the board but Seattle entering this matchup as a 10-point favorite is simply the icing on the cake.
GPP Running Back
Duke Johnson (HOU) – $3,500 at NO
This price is absolutely absurd. This is one of those cases where DraftKings released their prices too early and we need to capitalize on their impatience. Johnson is actually approaching a minimum price and many people anticipate him carrying the load for the Texans. While the Carlos Hyde signing may muddle things up a bit, Johnson is still expected to see double-digit carries and a hefty load in the passing game. The reason for that is because Lamar Miller got injured in the third preseason game, opening the door for Johnson to have a much bigger workload.
This is a guy who averaged close to 75 rushing attempts and 60 receptions over his first four seasons, which will surely arise in this dismantled backfield. That’s huge in a game with a total of 53, as we should see a ton of fantasy points scored on Monday night.
Cash Game Wide Receiver
Kenny Golladay (DET) – $6,300 at ARI
What if I told you that Golladay will be matched up with a number-three CB for the Cardinals in this game? Would you be intrigued? It’s not like that’s a game plan for the Cardinals, it’s the fact that Patrick Peterson is suspended and Robert Alford is injured. That puts Golladay in a superb matchup, as I anticipate Matthew Stafford force-feeding his number-one WR here. We’re talking about a player who’s primed for a breakout season too, as his 70 catches, 1,063 receiving yards and 119 targets were all career-highs last year. I expect those numbers to only rise, with the Lions getting rid of Golden Tate and Theo Riddick in the offseason.
GPP Wide Receiver
Dede Westbrook (JAC) – $4,800 vs. KC
If we’re using Foles , that means we have to stack him with Westbrook. The number-one receiver for the Jaguars proved that he’s the apple of Foles’ eye in the preseason, as he actually was targeted six times in Foles 10 pass attempts in the third preseason game. That damage was done in less than a half, as Westbrook provided four catches for 29 yards and a TD. While that’s a small sample size, it’s hard to overlook the fact that more than half of Foles’ targets went to Dede. The aforementioned matchup only adds to Westbrook’s intrigue , facing a KC defense who allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs last season.
Tight End of the Week
Delanie Walker (TEN) – $3,500 at CLE
Walker is a guy who’s been in numerous of my preseason articles and it’s amazing just how forgetful the industry is at times. We’re talking about a tight end who finished top five at the position in three-straight years before getting injured last season. That consistency is incredible, as he averaged about 80 receptions and 900 receiving yards per year in that span. That makes this price tag mind-boggling, especially considering the fact that this offense hasn’t changed since. The matchup is superb as well, with the Browns allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season.
DST of the Week
Seattle Seahawks – $3,100 vs. CIN
We’re going to keep this simple. The Seahawks have a home opener against a bad offense who will be without their top WR. In their final eight games without A.J. Green last season, the Bengals averaged just 17 points per game en route to a 1-7 record. That’s horrifying in an environment like CenturyLink Field, with the Bengals implied team total being a meager 17 points. This is a team who’s finished top eight in fantasy points at the D/ST position in every year since 2012 and they just added Jadeveon Clowney to haunt Andy Dalton. Why are the Seahawks not the highest-priced defense on the board?
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS
Joel Bartilotta is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @BartilottaJoel.