NFL picks against the spread, Week 11: Can the Patriots cover against the Eagles?
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It’s Week 11 of the NFL season, which kicks off on Thursday with the Steelers facing the Browns, so it’s time for our weekly look at the point spreads in order to help you win some money.
Last week, Charles Curtis went 4-8 in Week 10 picks (69-75 overall) and Steven Ruiz went 5-7 (75-70 overall). We now go to each of them for comments before their picks.
Charles: GAH. Another awful week. I vow to do better, although I can’t promise you I’ll catch Steven, who continues to have a solid betting record despite last week’s dud.
Steven: With the way this season is going, I’m just happy to above .500 at this point. It’s been a rough year for bettors, but there’s still time to turn things around.
(All bets courtesy of BetMGM)
Note: as of Thursday, there was no line listed for the Cowboys-Lions game.
Steelers at Browns (-2.5)
Minkah Fitzpatrick and the Steelers secondary is going to give Baker Mayfield fits, and on a short week, I’m liking the feistier team and the points.
I’ve been losing a lot of games betting against the Steelers this season. It’s my fault for not respecting that defense nearly enough. I could see it giving Mayfield some trouble this week.
Saints at Buccaneers (+5.5)
Last week was just an anomaly. The Saints will bounce back by throwing all day on the Bucs, and I think the defense bounces back by the embarrassment last week and forces Jameis Winston to throw a bunch of picks.
I agree with Charles about last week being an anomaly. It was just a weird game, and the Saints should be fine going forward. But they do always seem to have a hard time with the Bucs, and I could see Tampa’s offense keeping them in this one. I’ll take the points.
Falcons at Panthers (-5.5)
Will Atlanta win this game? No. But can they keep it close against Kyle Allen and with Matt Ryan back at the helm? Sure.
We have a Kyle Allen v. Matt Ryan matchup and you’re expecting me to lay 5.5 points on the former? Nope, not happening.
Jaguars at Colts (-3.5)
Nick Foles is back … but Jacoby Brissett might be back, too. Although I don’t know what to do about either of these teams, I’ll back the better QB (don’t @ me, Eagles fans).
You can @ me, Eagles fans. Jacoby is better. If he’s playing, this is an easy pick. Speaking of easy picks, I would not be surprised if Foles threw a couple of them on Sunday.
Broncos at Vikings (-10.5)
I’ve had my troubles picking games with giant spreads, but the Vikings defense will have no trouble handling Brandon Allen.
The Vikings have been great at home and they’re taking on a quarterback named Brandon Allen. Stop pretending like you know who Brandon Allen is. You don’t. John Elway barely knows. He just saw a tall, white guy walking about downtown Denver and thought to himself “He’ll do.”
Jets at Redskins (-1.5)
Do I have to pick one? Fine. I’ll say Sam Darnold outplays Dwayne Haskins, but if I had my choice, I wouldn’t throw any money on this one.
This is honestly just a coin flip. Avoid this game at all costs. Not just betting on it, either. Pretend like it doesn’t exist.
Bills at Dolphins (+6.5)
Fool me once, etc etc. I’m done shying away from the Dolphins, who are covering spreads like they’re coached by Mike Zimmer.
The last time these teams played, Buffalo needed a flukey onside kick return to cover. That game was in Buffalo and the Bills defense was playing much better than it is now. And the Dolphins look like a real NFL team now.
(AP Photo/Gail Burton)
Texans at Ravens (-4.5)
The scales have tipped a little too far in Baltimore’s direction here. I think Deshaun Watson can keep up and cover against Lamar Jackson.
I love both Lamar and Deshaun, but the Ravens are the more complete team and they’re playing at home. This is not a hard pick. Baltimore’s defense is starting to catch up to the offense.
Cardinals at 49ers (-11.5)
These two teams met two weeks ago and the Niners barely escaped with a win. San Francisco will walk away with a win at home, but the Cards and their 7-3-0 record against the spread will cover.
While I do think the close matchup between these teams had more to do with Thursday night wackiness, that line is too big. The Cardinals are a decent team and should be able to keep it within two scores.
Patriots at Eagles (+3.5)
It’s shocking this isn’t larger. Thanks, Vegas.
What Charles said. Easy call.
Bengals at Raiders (-10.5)
Could I see the Bengals backdoor covering easily? Sure. But here’s what I really see: Oakland puts up 37 points and allows 20.
I don’t know what to think about the Raiders defense, which had been very bad before the win over the Chargers but was very good during that game. I guess we’ll find out Sunday, but I’m betting that it was more of a fluke.
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Bears at Rams (-6.5)
My head says, what the heck are you doing betting on the Bears on the road? But my heart says: am I really going to lay the points on a Rams team that has been mediocre at best?
I was fully prepared to pick the Rams … until I saw that line. Los Angeles’ offense is not playing well enough to cover a touchdown spread.
Chiefs (-4.5) at Chargers
I bet on the Chargers last week. What was I thinking.
Patrick Mahomes is back and the Chargers are still the Chargers.
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