NFL Week 12 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks
Unlike previous weeks, there’s only one game that opened with a double-digit spread in Week 12 (Browns vs. Dolphins). Meanwhile, nine games have a spread of four or fewer points, which is an indication of how strong the matchups are on this slate. It’s easy to identify dramatic storylines for each game as the playoff picture is rounding into form. Let’s get into this week’s NFL spreads, over/unders, moneylines, and more!
All data presented is as of Thursday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard. Figures below calculated by wagering one unit on each touted bet with -110 spread odds.
NFL Week 12 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week
Falcons (-4) vs. Buccaneers
Even though they’re 3-7, don’t count the Falcons out! While that’s admittedly farfetched, Atlanta is in a great spot this week. The Falcons defense has held opponents to under 10 points in back-to-back weeks for the first time in 10 years, and Jameis Winston has been intercepted 18 times and lost four of his 11 fumbles in 10 games played. For some reason, Bruce Arians continues to let Winston sling the ball all over the field 40-plus times per game.
Per BetQL’s NFL consensus picks dashboard, 57 percent of total bets have gone on the Falcons ATS, while 78 percent of the money has. That tells us the sharps are all over Atlanta.
NFL Week 12 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week
Patriots (-300) vs. Cowboys
Tom Brady is frustrated. After New England’s recent win over the Eagles, TB12 was outspoken about his team’s lack of offense over recent weeks. When that happens, it usually spells danger for opposing teams. While the Cowboys possess the NFL’s top offense by some advanced metrics, they’ll have to go into a cold Foxborough against the league’s top defense. Betting on the Patriots’ moneyline every week is never a bad strategy, even when the potential payout isn’t gigantic.
Per BetQL’s NFL public betting dashboard, 65 percent of bets have been wagered on Dallas’ +240 moneyline, while 79 percent of the money has also been wagered on the Cowboys. Apparently, they’re ignoring the fact that under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have gone 70-28 outright against good offensive teams (teams that average 24 or more points per game). Check out BetQL’s NFL expert picks to see which side the pros are betting in this game.
NFL Week 12 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week
Giants at Bears UNDER 40
Words can’t accurately describe how horrendous Chicago’s offense has been. After benching Mitchell Trubisky (hip) late in their last game, it’s hard to feel confident the Bears scoring points against anyone. This is our favorite NFL over/under bet of the week, and apparently, bettors have agreed so far, as 66 percent of the bets and 78 percent of the money has gone on the UNDER. Since Chicago’s defense has still performed at an elite level, it could be tough sledding for Daniel Jones and the Giants offense.
You can find all updated NFL point spreads, lines and odds at BetQL!