Week 4 FanDuel, DraftKings Picks: Best sleepers, advice, strategy for NFL DFS lineups
In the shadow of last week’s slate that allowed us to lock Rex Burkhead and Nelson Agholor into all of our NFL DFS lineups without a second thought, Week 4 looks particularly bereft of obvious daily fantasy football value picks as of our originally Tuesday publishing date. While players are sure to emerge throughout the week based on injury reports, the players listed below are primarily high-variance options with upside that far exceeds their salary and are thus preferable for GPPs only on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Before breaking down the top Week 4 value plays, here’s your weekly reminder that this analysis is provided by the experts at RotoQL. Find out why 100,000 DFS players trust RotoQL to build lineups. Optimize, find value plays, and increase your chances of cashing today!
NFL DFS Picks Week 4: QB sleepers, values
Matthew Stafford, Lions vs. Chiefs (DraftKings $5,500 | FanDuel $6,900)
The Lions are hosting Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Kansas City offense in a battle of unbeatens, but the quarterback I’m targeting is former top-overall pick Stafford, as Detroit’s likely to throw the ball a ton as they attempt to keep up with the best offense on the planet in a game with a 54-point total, the highest of the week.
Stafford is averaging 20.3 DraftKings points across the first three games, which would be his best fantasy output since 2011 and second best of his career. Stafford’s as naturally gifted a thrower as anyone in the league and has a multiplicity of weapons at his disposal in Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola and T.J. Hockenson.
Detroit is getting the Chiefs away from Arrowhead, and they’re projected to be playing from behind in a game with a high total and higher shootout potential, but Stafford’s just the 13th-most expensive quarterback on DraftKings and carries the 16th highest price tag on FanDuel. He’s too darn cheap.
Daniel Jones, Giants vs. Redskins (DraftKings $5,300 | FanDuel $7,300)
Redskins at Giants has sneaky shootout potential, as both teams feature surprisingly effective offenses anchored to bad defenses. Both teams are better at defending the run than the pass, a discrepancy which will only be exacerbated by the fact that both teams are missing their Week 1 running backs, so this game could be an aerial assault that will race past the 47-point total.
In the period of just a few months, Jones has gone from draft-day punchline to preseason darling to Giants starting quarterback and Rookie of the Year candidate. Jones was thought to be polished but limited after studying under Peyton Manning’s mentor, David Cutcliffe, at Duke, but Sunday’s performance (23-for-36, 336 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions and two rushing touchdowns) against an improved Tampa Bay defense put many doubts to bed.
Washington is allowing 25.29 DraftKings points a game to quarterbacks, fifth most in the NFL this season, and Jones stands a great chance to surpass that mark in his first game at the Meadowlands, as the Giants will likely employ a pass-heavy approach without Saquon Barkley.
Week 4 DraftKings, FanDuel Picks: RB sleepers, values
Josh Jacobs, Raiders at Colts (DraftKings $5,100 | FanDuel $6,000)
Jacobs was everyone’s favorite play in the first two weeks of the season, but the rookie seems to be flying a bit under the radar early in the week due to a lackluster performance against a top-notch Vikings defense and a lack of involvement in the pass game. With Jon Gruden acknowledging the need to get Jacobs more targets (he was more impressive catching the ball than running at Alabama) and a date with a mediocre Colts defense on tap, this is a great time to reinvest in Jacobs.
The Colts are allowing 28.83 DraftKings points a game to running backs, the third-most generous defense on the main slate, including an absurd 5.4 yards per carry. With Jacobs locked into an early-down role, he’s a great option for GPPs and in cash game consideration.
Wayne Gallman, Giants vs. Redskins (DraftKings $4,600 | FanDuel $5,800)
While Justin Jackson and Phillip Lindsey are awfully appealing on DraftKings, their FanDuel prices don’t qualify as values, so instead we’re looking at Gallman, who will be occupying the three-down back role for the Giants in Saquon Barkley’s absence.
Gallman is a third-year player from Clemson who was viewed as just athletic enough to find a place in the league, but he was primarily drafted for his hard-nosed running style that got every yard available to him while making few defenders miss and running away from even fewer of them.
This play is all about context. Gallman should get the lion’s share of the running back touches for the home favorite in a game with a 47-point total. The Redskins have allowed 21.57 DraftKings points per game to running backs, not a terribly high number, but more than enough to afford a handsome return on this paltry investment. Gallman’s the safest cheap running back for cash games and could well pay off in tournaments if he finds himself with an outsized number of goal-line carries.
FanDuel, DraftKings Picks Week 4: WR sleepers, values
Paul Richardson, Redskins at Giants (DraftKings $3,700 | FanDuel $4,700)
With the Giants allowing a whopping 54.43 DraftKings points a game to wide receivers, all the Washington pass-catchers are in play, but with Trey Quinn and Terry McLaurin being priced up on FanDuel, we’re going to opt for Richardson.
Including a stellar Monday Night Football performance against the Bears where Richardson caught eight of nine targets for 83 yards and a touchdown, Richardson has a career-high 79-percent catch rate on the season, largely due to a career-low aDOT of 8.70. With rookie sensation McLaurin likely to see the same double-team attention that limited Chris Godwin’s impact in the Giants’ victory over the Buccaneers, Case Keenum should target Richardson early and often in a potential shootout with a healthy 47-point total and just a three-point spread.
As Richardson’s route tree and volume have fluctuated in the season’s first three games, he’s an ideal option to stack with Keenum (or run back a Giants stack) in GPPs.
Curtis Samuel, Panthers at Texans (DraftKings $4,600 | FanDuel $5,800)
Making his second appearance in this space in as many weeks, Samuel has been fulfilling the preseason hype with five receptions in each of his past two games, and he benefits from the presence of Kyle Allen, who looked like an upgrade for the Carolina pass game while leading the Panthers to 38 points against the Cardinals last week.
Samuel draws a great matchup against a Houston defense that is allowing 16.67 receptions and 47 DraftKings points per game to wide receivers. The Texans have been burned for at least 18.5 DraftKings points by four receivers in their first three games Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn, DJ Chark and Keenan Allen), and Samuel looks poised to become the fifth, which makes him a great option in all formats for Sunday’s slate.
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Week 4 NFL DFS Picks: TE sleepers, values
Will Dissly, Seahawks at Cardinals (DraftKings $3,600 | FanDuel $5,400)
After dropping monster DraftKings scores of 22 and 18 in the last two weeks, Dissly gets the best matchup in football this weekend. The Cardinals are allowing a whopping 30.27 DraftKings points a game to tight ends (Mark Andrews 28.2, T.J. Hockenson 28.1, Greg Olsen 25.5), more than 10 more points a game to the position than the next most generous defense.
A converted defensive end in his second season, the sure-handed Dissly (12 receptions on 14 targets) has been a favorite target of Russell Wilson since the moment he stepped on the field. With Chris Carson’s playing time called into serious question due to fumbling issues and backups Rashaad Penny and CJ Prosise not exactly screaming for touches with their level of play, Dissly should easily exceed his career average of 11.9 DraftKings points a game against Arizona.
T.J. Hockenson, Lions vs Chiefs (DraftKings $3,300 | FanDuel $5,200)
After exploding for 28.1 DraftKings points in his NFL debut, T.J. Hockenson has amassed just 2.8 DraftKings points in his past two games. That should turn around this Sunday against a Kansas City defense that funnels targets to the tight end, leading to a league-high 8.7 receptions a game to the position.
The No. 8 pick in last spring’s NFL Draft, the Iowa rookie has the physical traits to dominate any matchup, though the Chiefs are a particularly attractive draw as they’ve allowed an average of 17.4 DraftKings points to the position thus far. With a 54-point total, the week’s highest, and a six-point spread, this sets up to be a game where the Lions will be throwing early and often, which makes Hockenson one of the week’s most attractive options for tournaments.
Week 4 NFL DFS values: D/ST sleepers
Seattle Seahawks, Seahawks at Cardinals (DraftKings $3,300 | FanDuel $3,700)
Just the 14th-most expensive defense on FanDuel and the No. 8 D/ST on DraftKings, the Seattle defense makes for an appealing option against the Cardinals’ Air Raid attack.
When targeting fantasy defenses, we search for teams likely to face a large number of passing attempts as most scoring takes place by way of sacks and fumbles. With the Seahawks sitting as a five-point favorite as of Tuesday and Kyler Murray averaging 45.67 pass attempts a game, no value defense has a higher upside on Sunday’s slate.