Week 5 NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Rankings: Best ATS & Straight-Up Picks
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins
- We’ve created Confidence Ratings to help you make your Pick ‘Em Pool selections — both straight-up picks and against-the-spread (ATS) pools.
- The ratings are based on Sean Koerner’s proprietary NFL model.
- We’ve also put a spreadsheet at the very bottom where you can input the odds for your pick ’em pool to get custom ATS confidence ratings.
Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 5 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.
NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 5 then wrap it up with ATS.
Straight-Up Confidence Ratings
Confidence Rating: 89.6%
Confidence Rating: 88%
Confidence Rating: 80.8%
Confidence Rating: 72.9%
Confidence Rating: 66.8%
Confidence Rating: 65.2%