Back Philip Rivers on the road? Week 8 NFL betting trends to know
The 2019 season continues to be the year of the road team. Road teams went 9-4-1 against the spread (ATS) last week, and have had a winning ATS record every week this season. They are also 59-47-1 overall this season including Thursday’s game. There has not been an NFL season where road teams had a winning record since 1968.
For most of the year, road underdogs have been the story, and they are still hitting at a 64% rate (45-25-2). But last week, the road favorites went 5-1 ATS and won all six games outright. Home ‘dogs are now just 7-26-1 outright this season.
This week, one trend to watch involves road teams coming off a bye. Since 2012, those teams are 47-29-2 ATS. That trend applies to Tampa Bay, Carolina and Cleveland.
• Pat Shurmur is 8-3 ATS on the road as New York’s head coach. Eight of the 11 games went over the total including each of the past five.
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• Matt Patricia is 5-0 ATS against teams that entered the game with a losing record. Since 2014, Detroit is 22-11-2 ATS against teams with losing records.
• Detroit is 14-8-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2014. This snaps a streak of seven straight home games not being a favorite.
• Jameis Winston is 9-17-1 ATS in his career when the spread is between +3 and -3, including 2-10-1 ATS since the start of 2017. He’s lost 10 of the past 11 such games outright.
• Tennessee is 0-4-1 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3. The only time it pushed was last week when the Los Angeles Chargers fumbled at the 1-yard line down by three with under a minute left.
• Over the past five seasons, Tennessee is 12-4-1 ATS in nonconference games.
Los Angeles Chargers at Chicago Bears (-3.5), 1 p.m. ET
• Philip Rivers is 30-14-1 ATS in his career as a road underdog of at least three points, including 6-3-2 ATS since the franchise moved to Los Angeles.
• Since the start of last season, Los Angeles is 9-3-1 ATS on the road (4-2 ATS in games starting at 1 p.m. ET) including playoffs.
• Over the past 10 seasons, Los Angeles is 10-1-1 ATS when the total is under 42. Philip Rivers is 19-13-1 ATS in his career when the total is that low.
• Mitchell Trubisky is 9-3 ATS against teams that entered the game with a losing record.
• Atlanta has failed to cover five straight games and is now 6-17 ATS over the past two seasons, the worst record in the NFL. It is 2-7 ATS as an underdog in that span (1-4 this season).
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• While Atlanta has struggled against the number, it is 1-0 ATS this season against teams that entered with a winning record (Philadelphia) and 0-6 ATS in all other games.
• Seattle is 8-1 ATS in its past nine road games including the playoffs, and the only time it didn’t cover was by one point. Six of the past seven of those games have gone over the total.
• Adam Gase is 4-13 ATS in his career as a road underdog of at least five points (1-16 SU).
• New York is 0-4 ATS this season when the game goes under the total and 2-0 ATS when the game goes over the total.
• Sam Darnold is 5-10-1 ATS in his career as a starter, including 2-5 ATS on the road.
• Gardner Minshew II is 3-0 ATS against teams that entered the game with losing records.
• Since the start of 2017, Philadelphia is 9-7 SU as an underdog (10-6 ATS) including playoffs.
• Doug Pederson is 12-7 SU and ATS as an underdog of four or fewer points.
• The under is 12-5 in Josh Allen starts.
• Josh Allen is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in games where the line is between +3 and -3.
• Favorites are 22-12-1 ATS all-time in international games (16-10 ATS in London games). Favorites of at least seven points are 6-1 ATS in international games.
• Since the start of last season, Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS as an underdog of at least seven points (0-5 SU).
• Sean McVay is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite, although the only ATS loss was an outright defeat against Philadelphia last season.
• Arizona is 3-0 ATS in 1 p.m. ET games this season; however, since 2016, Arizona is 5-13 ATS in these games.
• Arizona is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season (3-2-1 SU), including three straight outright wins.
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• New Orleans is 5-0 ATS this season in Teddy Bridgewater starts. Bridgewater is 28-7 ATS in his career as a starter, the best mark by any quarterback in the Super Bowl era (min. 20 starts).
• Drew Brees has failed to cover in six straight starts including the playoffs, although immediately prior to that stretch, he was 10-1 ATS in his previous 11 games.
• Over the past 10 seasons, New Orleans is 7-14 ATS against quarterbacks that are 10 or fewer starts into their career.
• Thirteen of the past 15 Denver games went under the total, including the past three. Overall, Denver games are 17-5-1 to the under the past two seasons, the best under percentage in the NFL.
• Dating back to his time in Baltimore, the under is 11-3 in Joe Flacco’s past 14 starts.
• Every Indianapolis game has been decided by seven points or fewer this season.
• Frank Reich is 11-5-2 ATS in his past 18 games including playoffs, including 4-1-1 this season.
• Kyle Allen is 5-0 ATS and SU as a starter, including 3-0 as an underdog. Only eight quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era have covered each of their first six career starts, with Patrick Mahomes and Brian Hoyer the only two to do it in the past 10 seasons.
• Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 games against teams that entered the game with winning records and is 11-5 ATS in that spot since the start of 2017.
• Kyle Shanahan is 2-6-1 ATS as a favorite in his career (1-2 ATS this season).
• Oakland is one of two teams to be an underdog in every game this season (Miami). The point spread has yet to matter, as Oakland won three games outright and failed to cover in any of its three losses.
• Since 2012, Oakland is 10-20-1 ATS in nonconference games.
• Over the past three seasons, the under is 8-2 in Oakland games when the total is at least 50 and the Raiders are 3-7 ATS in those games. Houston is 4-0 ATS in the Bill O’Brien era when the total is at least 50.
• Road underdogs coming off a bye are 47-29-2 ATS since 2012.
• New England is 9-2 ATS in its past 11 games including playoffs.
• New England is 28-0 at home (18-10 ATS) against quarterbacks under the age of 25 since 2001 (the start of the Tom Brady era).
• New England has won 20 straight games against quarterbacks in their first two seasons, the longest streak in NFL history according to the Elias Sports Bureau (12-8 ATS).
• Andy Reid is 17-11-2 ATS as an underdog as Chiefs head coach.