Week 8 NFL odds, betting trends
In our Week 8 NFL odds, gambling trends, and line movement article, we’ll look at the top value bets, biggest public favorites/underdogs, and largest home favorites to target or fade, as well as an over/under that really stands out.
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Week 8 NFL odds, betting trends
*All Screenshots are from the BetQL Trending Value Bets Page
Value Bet of the Week: Eagles (-3) vs. Jaguars (in London)
Both the Eagles and the Jaguars had Super Bowl hopes coming into the season, but both teams have scuffled their way to mediocre 3-4 records as they come into their crucial mid-season matchup in London. The Jaguars are a team in turmoil right now as their defense has surrendered 30 points per game over their past three games, and the offense hasn’t been much better with Blake Bortles being benched in favor of Cody Kessler during last week’s shutout loss to the Texans. The BetQL models are all over the Eagles in this matchup, projecting them as 11-point favorites — a full eight points off of the three-point Vegas consensus. The Eagles have been excellent coming off a loss in the Doug Peterson era, going 6-1 straight up following a loss since the start of last season.
Largest Line Movement: Ravens (-2) at Panthers
The largest line movement of the week belongs to the Ravens, who have moved to slim two-point road favorites against the Panthers after the game opening as an even pick ’em. The Ravens have been carried by their defense, which checks in as the third-ranked defensive unit in the league per football outsiders DVOA. I mentioned how good the Eagles are coming off a loss over the last year, and the Ravens are even better, going 6-0 both straight up and against the spread over their past six games following a loss.
Largest Public Favorites: Colts (-3) at Raiders
We normally want to fade the large public favorites of the week, but this week will test that strategy as we see the Colts who are garnering over 90 percent of public tickets head to Oakland to take on the tanking Raiders. The Raiders will be down their top two offensive weapons after shipping off Amari Cooper to Dallas and losing Marshawn Lynch to a groin injury, while the Colts offense is returning to health following the returns of T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack, and possibly Jack Doyle. Another bet to consider in this game is the UNDER of 50.5, as the Raiders have been UNDER darlings this season, hitting the under in four of six games this year.
Home Favorite of the Week: Steelers (-8.5) vs. Browns
The BetQL models like a lot of road teams this week, but the home team to target is the Steelers, who come off their bye week to face the Browns at home. Pittsburgh appears to have gotten their act together over the past few weeks following wins and covers over the Falcons and Bengals after struggling at the beginning of the season. The Steelers defense has in particular shown marked improvement and will look to tee-off on a Browns offensive line that has struggled to keep rookie Baker Mayfield clean through the first half of the season. The public is split on this game, with both teams garnering almost equal action, with the BetQL models projecting the Steelers as 15-point favorites.
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